Defections show growing dissent in N. Korea

By Kim Jae-kyoung

A wave of recent defections by members of the North Korean elite is raising speculation that the Kim Jong-un regime has begun to crack and the young and unpredictable leader is losing his grip on power.

Experts said that a growing number of North Koreans from the “upper class” have sought to defect in the wake of international sanctions and a massive purge following the death of the late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, father of the current leader.

Over the past year, Kim Jong-un and his regime have seen several high-level officials, including diplomats and military officers, defect to a third country or to South Korea.

Most recently, Thae Yong-ho, North Korean deputy ambassador to London, has defected to Seoul with his wife and children, according to the Ministry of Unification, Wednesday.

The ministry said that Thae is the highest-ranking North Korean diplomat ever to defect to South Korea. He is the No. 2 man at the North Korean embassy in London, and was scheduled to end his term this summer and return to the North.

Given Thae had been tasked with promoting North Korea in Britain and Western Europe for more than a decade, his defection may come as a shock to Kim and his regime.

In July, a top military officer and a few other diplomats fled North Korea, according to sources. A teenage math prodigy also sought asylum at the South Korean consulate in Hong Kong in early July after participating in the International Mathematics Olympiad.

Experts say that the growing defections by ranking officials reflect growing dissent among the elite with the authoritarian regime.

“This is a small but significant beginning that illustrates that social control is breaking down,” Kongdan Oh, a North Korea expert and a researcher at the Institute for Defense Analysis in the United States.

Given the status of the North Korean regime, there should be a further increase in elite defectors, according to experts.

Pyongyang has become more isolated after the U.N. imposed more serious sanctions following a fourth nuclear test in January and the launch of a long-range rocket in February.

They said that more and more people in North Korea have come to believe that there is little hope after witnessing a series of purges and the international sanctions.

Kim Jong-un has overseen his own power transition that involved removing people loyal to his father and replacing them with his own, particularly in the Korean People’s Army (KPA). He has also overseen a brutal purge of his uncle Jang Song-thaek and his patronage network.

“No doubt a slowing Chinese economy and increasing international sanctions have convinced a few more that their careers are not going to amount to much in North Korea,” said Curtis Melvin, a researcher at the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University.

“There have been and will be losers in the North Korean political system, and some of them may try to defect to South Korea,” he added. Melvin is also a contributor to 38 North, a website specializing on North Korea.

Recently, Pyongyang has had difficulty handling the issue of elite defectors because they are unable to control external information due to the rise of modern technology.

In the past, the repressive country remained silent on this and prevented any contact with the defectors so that there was no residual impact on its politics and society.

“A big difference now is that defectors may be able to maintain some contact with the North, through modern technology, and this would greatly amplify their impact,” said Bill Brown, adjunct professor at Georgetown University, School of Foreign Service.

“If lots of people in Pyongyang, for instance, find out members of the elite are leaving, they will all get very nervous,” he added. “Hopefully the refugees and defectors will even have some kind of reverse extortion or blackmail available to threaten to use if their families are harmed.”

According to the unification ministry, the number of North Koreans who defected to South Korea from January to July reached 815, up 15.6 percent from a year ago. The figure stood at 1,397 in 2014 but went down to 1,276 last year.