Allies' strike plan may provoke NK
By Jun Ji-hye
The new operational concept jointly adopted by South Korea and the United States to destroy North Korea’s nuclear and missile facilities is expected to prompt the North to launch fresh provocations, sources said Tuesday.
The allies approved the implementation guidance on the “4D Operational Concept” during the annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) held in Seoul, Monday, as a means to carry out preemptive strikes against the North’s missile threats, containing nuclear, chemical and biological warheads.
The guidance, which is designed to detect, disrupt, destroy and defend — the 4 “D’s” — has the major implication that the allies have revived the concept of preemptive strikes against the North’s strategic facilities. A ministry official noted on condition of anonymity that “disrupt and destroy” contains the connotation of preemptive strikes.
In an apparent response to the allies’ endorsement of the new operational concept, the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Tuesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observed a live-fire exercise for anti-aircraft artillery.
Kim was quoted as saying by the KCNA: “We should actively push for the development of a variety of advanced anti-aircraft guns that meet the requirements of modern warfare.”
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, told reporters, “The report came right after South Korea and the U.S. approved the 4D Operational Concept. It seems the North had the intention to respond to the allies’ cooperation.”
Officials said Seoul and Washington have prepared the guidance since 2013 while having experienced various provocations from Pyongyang including a third nuclear test in February that year and the test-firing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile in May this year.
The preparation comes at a time when the six-party talks aimed at denuclearizing the North remain stalled since late 2008, due to the insistence by the North that it should join the talks with the status of a nuclear power and without any conditions attached.
The guidance will reportedly be reflected in a new joint wartime operational plan between the allies, dubbed Operation Plan (OPLAN) 5015, focused on preemptive strikes on strategic sites in the North. The allies signed OPLAN 5015 in June to replace the existing OPLAN 5027, which was more about how to defend the South.
“The 4D Operational Concept and the nation’s own Kill Chain preemptive strike and Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) systems are complementary,” an official said. “The Kill Chain would be on the disrupt and destroy level, while KAMD would be used for defense,” he added.
He said that the implementation of the guidance is limited within the Korean Peninsula, so the guidance is unrelated to the U.S.-led missile defense (MD) system.
Seoul is seeking to develop the Kill Chain and KAMD systems by the mid-2020s.
The allies are planning to create detailed guidelines for each unit based on the 4D Operational Concept, according to officials.
Another military official noted on the condition of anonymity that when there is a clear sign that the North will soon fire a missile, the allies would try to jam the enemy’s electronic signals and destroy its missile launch facilities by mobilizing the Air Force.
“Preemptive strikes and preventive strikes are different concepts,” he said. “The former is conducted when there is a clear sign of an enemy attack, while the latter is carried out to remove the enemy’s strategic facilities in advance to prevent an attack.”
He gave an example of the preventive attacks which Israel launched against Iraq’s nuclear facilities in 1981.
“This kind of attack is not acceptable in international society,” he said.
But he added that it is also difficult to prove that there was a clear sign of provocation and the preemptive strikes were consequently fair. So the new guidance could provoke the North.
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