Seoul-Tokyo ties suffer as China rises: scholar
By Kang Hyun-kyung
Masao Okonogi
A Japanese scholar argues that the worsening Korea-Japan relations, which are now at their lowest point since the two sides resumed diplomatic relations in 1965, could be the by-product of the growing influence of China in East Asia.
Masao Okonogi, professor emeritus of Keio University, said on June 16 that the diplomatic stalemate has come as the two countries perceive a rising China differently.
“Korea sees China as a business opportunity, whereas Japan views it as a threat,” he told The Korea Times at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security conference hall in Seoul.
The Korea expert said Japanese people have been wary of China’s growing influence in East Asia since 2010. “From that time, China began to build up its naval ambitions and clashed more often with Japan over a territorial dispute of the Senkaku islands (or Diaoyu islands in Chinese).”
Senkaku is a group of uninhibited islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea. China also claims sovereignty over the islands.
Okonogi said some people are convinced that South Korea has lost its balance in its relations with neighboring countries and slanted more toward China, noting such a perception paved the way for Korea-bashing in Japan.
Despite the Seoul-Tokyo disputes over history, the scholar was optimistic about the long-term South Korea-Japan relations, predicting that signs of change could come in the wake of August 15, the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.
According to Okonogi, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will unlikely announce any measures that can bring a diplomatic breakthrough in his anniversary speech on August 15.
However, he said, the leaders of the two countries will be able to meet for a summit after that because both sides are fully aware that the worsening relations serve no one’s interests. “So they will find ways to improve relations to end the stalemate,” he said.
Since the two sides normalized diplomatic relations, the Japanese scholar said, their relations have gone through three different stages, driven by what he called distinct systematic changes.
During the first stage, which lasted until late 1989, the end of the Cold War, their relations had gone well, so much so that they achieved a lot more than initially expected.
The following period, until 2010, before the rise of China as a global economic powerhouse, South Korea-Japan relations underachieved and the ties were a half-victory. There were some unsatisfactory elements in their relations but the period was relatively fine compared with the one to come next.
According to Okonogi, South Korea-Japan relations are now in their third stage and its beginning was not smooth as the two sides continued to clash over historical disputes.
He called on the two sides to be more strategic rather than emotional to make their relations move forward.