NK provocation puts Dresden initiative to test
By Kim Tae-gyu
The back-to-back provocations from North Korea do not necessarily mean that the reclusive regime has refused President Park Geun-hye’s recent package proposal called the “Dresden Doctrine,” observers said Monday.
Instead, they said Pyongyang’s recent moves are geared toward the ongoing joint military exercise between Seoul and Washington, which it claims is a prelude to invasion.
“The ROK-U.S. military exercise prompted North Korea to step up its rhetoric and test-fire missiles as was the case in the past. The threats seem to have little to do with the Dresden Doctrine,” said Paik Hak-soon, a researcher at the Sejong Institute.
“In other words, North Korea would have carried out similar maneuvers even if Park did not come up with the statement.”
During her visit to German city Dresden last Friday, Park suggested aid and joint projects to prepare for unification such as assisting pregnant mothers and infants in the North, building multi-farming complexes and investing in social infrastructure.
Two days later, North Korea threatened to conduct a new type of nuclear test in response to a U.N. condemnation of the North’s ballistic missile launches midway through last week.
On Monday, it fired artillery shells in waters in the West Sea with some of them falling south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the de-facto maritime border. Pyongyang refuses to recognize the NLL.
Seoul dispatched F-15K fighter jets near the sea border and evacuated residents in the northernmost Baengnyeong Island to temporary shelters.
In this climate, pessimism surfaced about the early demise of the Dresden Doctrine.
“The North notified the South of its planned live-fire drills in advance. I believe that it will not worsen inter-Korean relations. If we craft concrete steps under the Dresden Doctrine, the regime might accept it,” Paik said.
Prof. Yang Moo-jin at the University of North Korean Studies concurred.
“South Korea is currently holding war games with the United States including landing on the Korean Peninsula. Experiences tell us that North Korea wouldn’t sit idly by,” said Yang. “We do not have to put too much weight on the current situation, which are by and large similar to the past.”
Shin In-kyun, chief of the Korea Defense Network, warned of any contingencies.
“While proposing the Dresden Declaration, Seoul would not have expected an instant and warm welcome from the recalcitrant North. Its recent provocations would not affect the proposal,” Shin said.
“However, things will be completely different if any mishaps take place, which claim the lives of people. Then, Seoul would have to forget about the declaration.”
In 2010, the North shelled the border island Yeonpyeong in the South, killing a total of four people including two civilians. Thereafter, inter-Korean relations hit bottom.