Liberals benefit from alliance: survey
By Chung Min-uck
Liberal presidential candidates are benefiting from their current move to select a single unified candidate for the Dec. 19 election, according to a survey released Friday.
Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP) and independent Ahn Cheol-soo have agreed to declare a unified candidate before the Nov. 25-26 candidate registration period to defeat the ruling Saenuri Party’s standard-bearer Park Geun-hye.
Since the intention was announced, the conservative candidate has suffered a decline in popularity.
In a multi-way survey conducted by pollster Realmeter, Wednesday and Thursday, a day after the two liberal hopefuls announced their move, Park was favored by 39.4 percent of likely voters. This figure is a 2.8 percent decrease compared to a previous poll.
Previously, her support had barely fallen below 40 percent. This figure is significant because it is a rough representation of conservative voters here.
In the survey, Moon and Ahn received a combined 53.6 percent _ 25.4 and 28.2 percent, respectively. These produced corresponding increases of 1.1 and 0.2 percent.
The margin of error of the survey is plus and minus 2.5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. It was carried out by telephone on 1,500 adult men and women across the country selected through random digit dialing.
“I guess the moderates, people in their 40s and the ones who live in the capital area have turned their back on Park at least for now, meaning the liberal alliance is quite effective,” said Kim Hyung-joon, a Myongji University Professor. “It is obvious that this trend will continue.”
The professor pointed out that the Saenuri Party candidate is incapable of expanding her support base like the liberals due to her image as a traditional conservative. Moreover, Kim said, Park has no agenda prepared to turn the people’s focus away from the opposition alliance.
Such a trend is also reflected in one-on-one matchups.
In a two-way hypothetical race, Park trailed Ahn by over 10 percentage points. Ahn received 50.6 percent, a 0.6 percent increase, whereas, Park’s rating fell by 2.2 percent to 40 percent.
Moon also beat Park by 4.9 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup.
“We see it as a passing phase,” an official at Park’s election camp was quoted as saying, Friday. “But if the liberal alliance succeeds in producing a positive outcome without any conflict, it can deal a severe blow against Park in the long term.”
“The fundamental problem is that we have no countermeasures left,” the official said.