One month on, outlook murky for new N. Korean regime

By Kim Young-jin

Nearly one month after the death of late North Korean ruler Kim Jong-il, the isolated state is projecting an air of calm as it secures the power of his youngest son. But behind the curtains, analysts say the regime is far from out of the woods and that its long-term outlook remains up in the air.

Led by a collective leadership straddling party and military, Pyongyang has quickly anointed Kim Jong-un with titles such as supreme leader and supreme commander of the armed forces since the reported death of his father on Dec. 17. A barrage of propaganda has attempted to frame the young man thought to be no older than 30 as controlling military and economic affairs.

But watchers continue to raise questions over how long the system can hold given Kim’s inexperience and whether group leadership can survive after decades of rule centered on a single leader. While his father had decades to burnish his credentials, Jong-un is believed to have been groomed for a mere three years.

“Never before in North Korea’s history of totalitarian, personality-cult leadership has anything like this been attempted,” Victor Cha, Korea chair for the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in an essay. “They are making it up each day.”

Kim’s inner circle includes Jang Song-thaek, his powerful uncle who is expected to oversee daily operations of the regime, and Ri Yong-ho, who has operational control over the military. Jong-un’s aunt, politburo member Kim Kyong-hui, is said to be a key advisor as is National Defense Commission (NDC) vice chairman O Kuk-ryol.

A second ring of power is expected to focus on figures from the party’s Central Military Commission, which is shaping up as a major power source in the new regime. Kim Yong-chun and U Tong-chuk, both members of the commission, are seen as building his power while stamping out possible dissent within the system.

But watchers say that if Kim leans for too long on this leadership he risks becoming a permanent figurehead.

“Ultimately, his political survival will depend on his ability to develop his own support base that will likely be drawn from up-and-coming party and military figures,” Ken Gause, a senior analyst with the Center for Naval Analyses wrote on a blog. “He will have to mature as a leader and hone his skills in leveraging power bases within the regime.”

To do so, the new leader will have to consolidate support among a younger generation of officials who were recently infused into the system. Sources say such figures include offspring of former communist guerillas and regime officials, speculated to have been appointed to shore up Kim’s power.

Kim’s death came as his country approached the critical year of 2012, when it has promised to emerge as “strong and prosperous” in time to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, its founder.

Analysts say that festivities for Kim Jong-il’s 70th birthday in February and the founder’s birthday in April will offer chances for the regime to further cement the new leader’s power, suggesting he might take roles such as chairman of the NDC or party military commission.

Other signposts of Kim Jong-un’s power could include a trip to China, the North’s main ally, which would signal an ability to oversee foreign affairs. The emergence of a personal secretariat would also be a major clue, expert Gause said in the posting on the Council on Foreign Relations website.

Also in question is how the regime will handle its relations with the outside after years of high tension under Kim Jong-il. Recent signals, including renewed harsh rhetoric against the Lee Myung-bak administration suggests it will maintain its close bond with Beijing while wielding its nuclear program for aid.

The late ruler’s death came amid reports that Pyongyang agreed during talks to suspend its uranium enrichment program in return for 240,000 tons of food from the U.S. The suspension has been deemed a precondition for the resumption of multilateral denuclearization talks.

The regime has since said it remains open to the deal. Watchers say how it handles the situation could provide clues as to whether the regime will veer toward engagement or a continuation of its provocative behavior.

Hints of distress could include mixed messages among the party and military and defections among elite officials. Also bearing watching will be Kim’s elder half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, who recently told a Japanese paper that he opposed the hereditary succession. Some speculate he could make a play for power if fissures emerge in Pyongyang.