‘Defection among NK elite likely to rise’

By Lee Tae-hoon

The sudden demise of North Korea’s enigmatic leader Kim Jong-il will likely spur a rise in the number of the communist regime’s elite class deserting their Stalinist country, experts said Friday.

“Many ranking North Korean officials in China are refusing to return after being summoned to North Korea,” said Do Hee-yun, secretary general of the Citizens’ Coalition for Human Rights of Abductees and North Korean Refugees.

Pyongyang reportedly began to call back its senior officials at diplomatic missions in China last weekend even prior to its state media’s announcement of the death of the “Dear Leader” on Monday.

Do claimed those who fear a possible political purge and uncertain future in the era of Kim Jong-un, the late leader’s youngest son, are postponing their trips to Pyongyang by making a number of excuses, such as having to collect payments from trade agents.

The North Korea expert predicted that some high profile figures abroad may seek ways to defect to Seoul as Pyongyang appears reluctant to take strong action against them during the mourning period for Kim.

Kang Sung-kyu, professor of North Korea studies at Korea University, claimed that a large number of the North’s elite will escape to the South if a power struggle erupts in their hunger-stricken country.

“It remains to be seen whether Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law Jang Song-thaek will help Jong-un take firm control of North Korea or remove his nephew with the help of other top military figures, such as Kim Yong-chun, minister of the North’s People’s Armed Forces,” he said.

The professor stressed that trust in the Kim dynasty has reached its lowest level, even among military personnel, due to a continued famine and hardship after Kim Jong-il took power following the death of his father, Kim Il-sung, in 1994.

“North Korean defectors say in order to prove yourself to be a good friend, you have to curse Kim Jong-il in North Korea, which was something unthinkable when the North’s founder Kim Il-sung ruled the country,” he said.

The professor said conflicts among military top brass would result in political persecution and a change of heart among those who had enjoyed a vested interest in maintaining the failed system of central planning.

Kang, however, noted that a mass defection of North Koreans to the South will unlikely happen in the near future as Pyongyang has tightened its border control and toughened punishments for those attempting to flee.

“Now you have to pay five to 10 times more to bribe North Korean soldiers to cross into China and the odds of successfully leaving are much lower due to tighter border controls.”

Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at Seoul's Sejong Institute, concurred that a large number of the North Korean elite or dissidents may opt to leave the country for fear of a purge in the near future.

He said, however, a mass defection will unlikely take place as the young Kim, who is believed to be in his late 20s, appears to be maintaining firm control over the communist regime.

“There are many signs indicating that Kim would not lose his grip on power over the military in the foreseeable future as his late father meticulously prepared for a successful transfer of power to him from the late 2000s,” Cheong said.

Nevertheless, the scholar expressed concern that if too many dissidents in the North desert, the communist regime may lose its chance to bring fresh change to the reclusive nation.

“Many of those considering seeking refuge elsewhere are the ones who would fight for a better North Korea,” Cheong said.

Rev. Chun Ki-won who has helped nearly 1,000 escape to Seoul, said that he has halted all rescue activities in China as Beijing and Pyongyang have begun to tighten crackdowns on potential defectors in light of Kim’s death.