Who will control North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs?

By Kim Jong-chan

Following the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il Tuesday, what draws keen attention is who will be empowered to control the communist state’s nuclear weapons, North Korea watchers said Tuesday.

South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Kim Jong-il made all final decisions on the North’s nuclear and missile policies. He headed the country’s National Defense Commission, a top decision-making body composed of close confidants.

In theory, Kim Jong-un, heir and youngest son of the late leader, is believed to have taken over the North’s nuclear control tower. Jong-un is currently vice chairman of the Central Military Committee of the North Korean Workers’ Party.

This is because the official (North) Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) called Jong-un “Great Successor and the outstanding leader of our party, military and people,” declaring the son as his heir.

Observers did not rule out the possibility that the father may have made his son the nuclear control tower after he collapsed from a stroke in August 2008.

Jong-un, if given the authority, may have been assisted by Ju Kyu-chang, who is in charge of machinery industry at the North Korean Workers’ Party, and Li Yong-ho, chief of the army.

However, some North Korea watchers said it is still unclear who will control North Korea’s nuclear policies as it remains to be seen whether Jong-un is able to control the administration and military. The United States has also expressed worries about the uncertainty.

After meeting Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba in Washington Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters, "We both share a common interest in a peaceful and stable transition in North Korea, as well as in ensuring regional peace and stability."

Baek Seung-joo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis said the U.S. is more interested in who will manage weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in a stable manner than issues regarding the successor. In the U.S., more attention is being paid to possible change in control of the WMDs, he said, adding that this is different from South Korea where the successor is a much-talked-about issue.

The South Korean authorities believe that the Pyongyang regime has 30-40kg of plutonium, enough to produce 5-8 nuclear warheads. It may have already made 1 or 2 warheads and deployed them, they say.

jckim@koreatimes.co.kr