Six-party nuclear talks plunge into uncertainty

By Park Si-soo

The sudden death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has immediately caught South Korea off guard and plunged the envisioned multilateral negotiations aimed at denuclearization of the reclusive nation into a serious doubt.

The third round of meetings between the United States and North Korea aimed at resuming the long-stalled six-nation nuclear disarmament talks has been delayed indefinitely. The meeting was originally slated for Thursday in Beijing.

Seoul’s recent efforts to hold the third round of talks with Pyongyang in a separate move to reopen the six-party talks will surely face a great setback, analysts said.

It will take time for the North to return to any negotiation tables with the relevant countries, including the South, they said. They couldn’t predict how long Pyongyang’s diplomacy will remain paralyzed, citing the fact that no clear leadership has been established in the nuclear-armed totalitarian country.

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, who led the American delegation to the six-party talks, said he believes Kim Jong-un was “not ready” to take the helm.

He said Kim’s death will bring about a negative impact upon possible dialogue between the North and the U.S. although the two countries recently reportedly reached agreement on U.S. food aid in return for the North dismantling its uranium enrichment program.

Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Washington-based think tank, the Heritage Foundation, said it is likely that such negotiations would be postponed as North Korea goes through a mourning period, formalized succession process, and possible retrenchment of its foreign policies.

“The death of Kim Jong-il would presumably delay a resumption of such negotiations as the new North Korean leadership assesses to what degree it is willing to open up to the outside world,” Klingner told The Korea Times in an email interview.

“Although Kim’s demise provides an opportunity for change on the Korean Peninsula,” he said it was a transition “fraught with uncertain, nervousness, and potential danger.”

Prof. Yoon Duk-min at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security is also taking a wait-and-see approach to the situation.

“Nothing is predictable at the moment,” Yoon said. “We need to pay attention to what’s happening in the North after Kim’s funeral slated for Dec. 28.”

Prof. Kim Yong-hyun of Dongguk University echoed the view, calling on the government to take an “extremely cautious” approach to the issue.

North Korea has said the late Kim’s third son, Jong-un, will replace his father as “Great Successor,” but analysts here said it’s unclear how strong the 20-something’s grip on the North Korean regime and its military is. In other words, there is a constant possibility that internal power struggle could erupt in deciding who will take the helm of North Korea, they said.