’3rd nuke test looms if talks fail’

By Kim Young-jin

North Korea could conduct a long-range missile or third nuclear test if ongoing talks with South Korea and the United States fall through, a presidential advisor warned Friday, raising stakes for resumption of denuclearization talks.

“If (the talks) turn out to be a failure, I think North Korea can be tempted to take one of these options, believing it does not have any chance to gain economic aid,” Kim Tae-hyo, Cheong Wa Dae’s deputy national security advisor said at a defense forum in Seoul.

“It is up to North Korea whether they will choose both or one of these provocative actions.”

The remark came after the North held two rounds of nuclear talks with the South and one with the United States in a bid to resume the six-party denuclearization which have been stalled since 2009. Pyongyang conducted its second nuclear test shortly after walking out of the forum.

It further raised tensions last year by waging two deadly provocations on the South and revealing a uranium-enrichment program believed to provide a second path to nuclear weapons.

But recent movements suggest the parties are on their way to back to the table amid growing concern over the program. Analysts say the Kim Jong-il regime is eager to get back to negotiations to secure aid to bolster the succession process from leader Kim to his third and youngest son, Kim Jong-un.

Presidential advisor Kim said that if the North believed further provocations could aid help it shore up its internal situation, it would not hesitate to wage in further “provocative military adventurism” following its shelling of Yeonpyoeng Island and sinking of the warship Cheonan.

He said the allies would discuss deterrence against North Korean provocations when the sides meet in Washington for summit talks next week.

The second round of US-North talks could take place soon after the summit, officials here say. Seoul and Washington want Pyongyang to halt all nuclear activity and allow U.N. inspectors back into the country.

Meanwhile, policymakers and experts discussed the implications of the rapidly changing regional security environment caused by the North’s behavior and other factors, at the forum organized by the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security.

In particular, they pointed to China’s growing clout as the main factor causing Asian countries to carefully balance their relations to Beijing with the American presence in the region.

Concern has risen over the possibility that if China continues to grow economically, it might build up its military in a bid for hegemony in Asia. Such a development could cause security competition between Washington and Beijing and cause smaller countries to choose between the giants, Stephen Walt, a professor of international affairs at Harvard University, said.

Kurt Campbell, U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs, expressed confidence that the so-called G2 countries shared a “deep recognition” on the need to build trust, saying he believed the two sides were “destined to work together.”

Campbell, however, stressed that the two countries must work to decrease chances for misunderstanding, especially militarily, and come up with rules of the road in maritime affairs while continuing dialogue.

John Mearsheimer, a political science expert at Chicago University, said Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China and Yellow Seas were “inklings of evidence” that it will try to dominate the region.

Seoul relies on the Washington as a security partner but is increasingly dependent on Beijing in trade. Others pointed to Beijing’s shielding of the North from international sanctions for its provocations as signals it was not ready to be a reliable security partner.

Presidential advisor Kim indicated that Seoul and Washington would continue to bolster its ties while working with China and Russia on regional security. As for China, it would “fully engage” and have more strategic talks on the “broader future of Korea-China relations.”

Kim Sung-han, a professor at Korea University said the Seoul appeared likely to seek a “soft balance” between the two powers so they would not seek to impose their respective agendas on the South.