Photos of heir apparent cause doubt among N. Koreans

By Kim Young-jin

Recently-released images of North Korean heir apparent Kim Jong-un, which reveal his boyish looks, may be raising doubt among citizens in the North over his ability to succeed his father, defectors here said Sunday.

The North’s state media released last week the first verifiable images of an adult Kim, the youngest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, during a rare party meeting that elevated him to high posts, paving the way for his eventual succession. Believed to be 27 years old, the junior Kim appeared portly, with a youthful face.

“They’re not complaining about it openly, but in truth, North Koreans have little faith in Kim Jong-un after seeing the photographs because he still appears too young and because he lacks experience,” Seo Jae-pyong, head of Seoul-based activist group North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity, told The Korea Times, citing contacts there.

The North Korean defector estimated that only 20 percent of the population supports the heir apparent, compared to a much higher level enjoyed by Kim Jong-il when he took the reins from his own father, country founder Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994.

Experts say Kim Il-sung was well-loved among the people, and that Kim Jong-il’s popularity fell as the North’s centralized economy crumbled in the 1990s.

Kim Seung-min, a representative of Free North Korea Radio, said defectors here generally believe that those in the North will view Kim Jong-un as too young and that his weight could be a turn-off as well.

“I think it was a mistake to show the pictures, because he looks too well fed and well off. This may make some North Koreans uncomfortable, as they have been suffering for many years from starvation and poverty,” he said.

The economy promises to be one of the main challenges for Jong-un if he manages to succeed his father. Though the details of the succession process remain veiled, analysts expect a gradual shift of responsibility from father to son, with Kim Jong-il remaining in control until he dies.

But a lack of popularity among the populace could prove to be a stumbling block for the process, said Brian Myers, an expert at Busan’s Dongseo University.

“This (Jong-un’s appearance) is going to add to the propaganda apparatus’ main problem, which is countering the perception among North Koreans that Kim Jong-un was born with a silver spoon in his mouth,” he said.

Kim Jong-il faced a similar problem, the expert said, but 20 years of apprenticeship allowed time for a personality cult to be built around him. Jong-un is not expected to have nearly as much time, with leader Kim’s health faltering after a reported stroke in 2008.

Myers said if the regime loses popular support, it would have difficulty maintaining a stable population, saying it could lead to a greater number of defections through a porous border with China. “So far the North has lost virtually none of its elite or even the middle class to defections, but if this changes, there could be a snowball effect,” he said.

An increase in propaganda extolling Kim Jong-un’s work ethic and how well he has taken care of his father, should be expected, he said, though he doubts whether it will be sufficient and expects to see a “general increase in disillusionment with the regime.”

At least one defector, however, assessed the images in a light more favorable to the regime. Kim Heung-kwang of the intellectuals group, who in the North was a professor at a communist party university, said video footage of Jong-un shows he has successfully adopted the manners of the North Korean leadership, including how to applaud properly.

Public support for the new leadership now depends on the regime’s ability to “market” Jong-un, defector Seo said, adding that Kim Jong-il will have to implement positive policy changes to prove the family can manage the country properly.

Korea Times intern Kim So-yang contributed to this article

김정은 사진공개는 잘한 선택?

최근 공개된 북쪽의 유력한 후계자 김정은의 사진이 북쪽 주민들 사이에서 후계자로서의 그의 자질에 대한 논란을 일으키고 있다고 탈북자들이 일요일 전했다.

북한 언론은 지난 주 오랜만에 열린 북한 노동당 대표자회의에서 장군 직책을 수여 받은 김정일의 막내 아들 김정은의 성인 모습을 공개하였고 이로 인해 그가 세습의 과정을 밟고 있음을 보여줬다. 현재 27살로 알려진 김정은의 사진에서의 모습은 아직 어리며 살이 찐 모습이다.

사진공개와 관련해 대체적으로 탈북자들은 김정은의 어린 모습과 그의 경험 부족이 북한 주민들에게 신뢰성을 주지 못할 것이라는 반응이다.

또한 김정은의 살찐 모습은 그가 잘 먹고 잘 살아 왔다는 것을 반영할 수 있기 때문에 그 동안 굶주림과 경제적으로 어려움을 겪어온 북한 주민들로서는 달갑지 않은 모습일 수 있다는 의견도 있다.

한편 또 다른 측면에서는 김정은의 자세와 박수치는 모습을 보면 이미 북한의 리더 모습을 터득한 것 같다는 의견이 나온다.

김정은의 현재 지지율은 김정일이 그의 아버지 김일성에게서 권력을 물려받았을 때보다 낮다고 평가되고 있다. 이 시점에서 김정은의 후계자로서의 성공은 얼마만큼을 그를 인식시키고 홍보를 잘 하는 가에 달렸으며 김정일이 세습과정을 마치기 전 북한 내에서의 어떠한 큰 변화를 일으켜 무너진 북한 주민의 신뢰를 얻는 것이 중요하다는 반응이다.