Joint drills undercut NK power succession

By Kim Young-jin

China has sharpened its rhetoric against ongoing U.S.-South Korea war games, viewing them as an attempt by Washington to undermine a power handover in the isolated state in a bid for greater regional influence.

An editorial published Thursday in The Global Times, which is affiliated with the state mouthpiece The People’s Daily, said the exercises aim to instigate the collapse of the Kim Jong-il regime, not warn against provocations after the sinking of a South Korean frigate in March.

“The controversial sinking of the South Korean warship, in retrospect, is more like a convenient excuse for the U.S. to conduct a long-planned drill that envisions the occupation of the North, rather than a single reaction toward an emergency,” it said.

“China has to be careful of the two allies' strategic goal, which is to create turmoil in North Korea in the face of a pending political power transition,” it added.

Reports surfaced earlier this week that South Korean and American troops had been practicing a plan that envisions occupying and stabilizing the North as part of their annual Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercises which ended Thursday.

The games were the latest in a series of exercises aimed at deterring the North in the aftermath of March 26, when the Cheonan was split into two by what the allies determined was a North Korean torpedo attack.

Beijing has been irked by the joint naval exercises, despite Seoul and Washington insisting they are intended solely to send a message to Pyongyang.

Washington, the editorial said, has been planning the stabilization drills for a year as a “strategy to push and prepare for change, and take the initiative if the regime change really happens.”

The salvo came as North Korean leader Kim Jong-il reportedly arrived in China on a visit that could be tied to a dynastic power succession underway in the Stalinist state. Analysts say Kim will designate his youngest son, Jong-un, as his heir apparent at a meeting of party representatives slated for early September.

Experts also believe the power transfer, if fumbled, or Kim’s eventual death could lead to a power vacuum in the nuclear-armed North.

Regime change in the North would mean “a massive strategic change of power in Northeast Asia, as well as a change in the global balance of power,” the Global Times said.

“China must also be wary of the United States putting the entire Korean Peninsula under its influence.”

Such a development would pose a threat to both China and Russia, it concluded, saying that Beijing should “play an active role in preserving peace on the Korean Peninsula, as well as looking after its own interests.”

Seoul’s Unification Minister Hyun In-taek, however, reiterated this week that the country is pursuing a "peaceful and gradual" reunification with the North.

"We want to open the future of the Korean Peninsula through cooperation" between the two Koreas, Hyun said at a forum, echoing similar statements made by President Lee Myung-bak.

Experts here say Beijing is looking for ways to contain further escalation of military exercises stemming from the Cheonan incident, a possible reason why it is pushing for resumption of the six-party talks on North Korea’s denuclearization.

The next round of South Korea-U.S. joint naval drills are slated for early next month in the West Sea.

The denuclearization talks have been in limbo since the North walked away from the table in response to UNSC sanctions imposed for its missile and nuclear tests last year.