N. Korea Likely to Launch Satellite, Not Missile
By Kim Sue-young
Staff Reporter
North Korea seems to be preparing for a ``satellite'' launch as it claimed, Dennis Blair, director of the U.S. National Intelligence, said Tuesday.
South Korea, meanwhile, reaffirmed that both satellite and missile launches would be a violation of the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1718.
``I tend to believe that the North Koreans announced that they are going to do a space launch and I believe that that's what they intend,'' Blair told the Senate Armed Services Committee. ``I could be wrong but that would be my estimate.''
The isolated state announced late last month it would launch a Kwangmyongsong-2 satellite as part of its space program.
But some outside experts speculated it would be a test launch of a Taepodong-2 long-range missile, considered capable of reaching Alaska and Hawaii.
Such a missile was fired in 2006 but failed shortly after launch, according to reports.
``There's a space launch vehicle that North Korea launches, the technology is indistinguishable from intercontinental ballistic missiles,'' said Blair.
``And if a three-stage space launch vehicle works, then that could reach not only Alaska, Hawaii but also part of what the Hawaiians call `the Mainland' and what the Alaskans call the Lower 48,'' he added.
South Korea downplayed the remarks, claiming a rocket launch itself does not matter.
``Even if North Korea launches a satellite, it would be part of a test for missile technology. That's why we're concerned,'' a government official was quoted as saying by Yonhap News Agency.
Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan reiterated that any launch would violate the UNSC Resolution, saying, ``(A missile launch) would foster tensions in international society as well as Northeast Asia and negatively influence the six-party talks.''
Regarding the North Korean leader's health, Blair said Kim Jong-il ``probably suffered a stroke in August that incapacitated him for several weeks. It appears that his health has improved and we assess he is making key decisions.''
``We see no organized opposition to Kim's rule and only occasional incidents of social disorder,'' he added.
Kim, 67, failed to appear in an event to mark the 60th anniversary of the North's founding last September, which fired up rumors that the dictator might have indeed suffered a stroke and be incapable of leading the state.