ED Trump's futile war
A man holds an Iranian flag on a street, after U.S. and Iranian officials said they had reached a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in Tehran, Iran, June 15. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters-Yonhap
106-day conflict with Iran resolves nothing, leaves world worse off
It is a relief that the war in Iran, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli air strikes targeting Iran's nuclear program, is halting.
While short of a complete peace agreement, the U.S. and Iran said they will sign a memorandum of understanding Friday in Geneva that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop the U.S. naval blockade. A period of 60 days of negotiations will allow the two sides to discuss the nuclear issue, as well as the easing of sanctions to help rebuild the Iranian economy.
This is as close as it gets to a peaceful exit from 106-days of war. The two parties must commit to seeing it through.
U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on social media, "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!" Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazeem Gharibabadi announced via X, formerly Twitter: “The immediate and permanent end of the war and all military operations on various fronts, including #Lebanon, will be announced starting tonight.” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, as representative of the mediator nation, also confirmed with his own post on X.
Trump should ensure the following days of negotiation result in a fair and justifiable agreement, particularly in regard to Iran's broader nuclear program. Many nations are awaiting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the global oil supply moves.
With just a few days remaining before Friday's signing and the negotiating period ahead, the news has restored some measure of stability to global markets. The price of Brent crude oil immediately dropped to $83 per barrel and stock markets around the world climbed, including the Korean bourses.
For Korea, which imports about about 70 percent of oil from Middle East about 90 percent of which travels through the strait, anticipation is high that the agreement will materialize quickly and prove sustainable. There is ample cause for caution, however, given the many false starts to reaching a peace deal, prompting CNN to report that Trump has claimed 37 times that a deal with Iran was imminent. For an energy-dependent exporter country like Korea, the U.S.-Iran conflict should be a strong imperative to diversify its energy supply sources.
Additionally, Korea has had 24 ships and 137 sailors trapped by the strait blockade. Along with other nations, we can now anticipate their safe return.
The war in Iran has wreaked havoc on people's lives, and further shattered the country's already weak economy, even as it demonstrated resilience by seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz. Once opened, the strait must remain a free pathway for all nations.
The war in Iran that Trump said would be over in "four to five weeks" went on for more than three months, with the goalposts for U.S. objectives moving constantly. This approach to military action should be thoroughly reviewed by the U.S. administration, whether it be an aerial military operation in the case of Iran or tailored actions like the operation to capture Venezuela's leader earlier this year. Domestically, Trump should have learned the lesson that gas prices and inflation rule the hearts of voters ahead of November's midterm elections — a significant gauge of his performance in the first year of his second term.
When the details of the agreement come out on Friday, all nations should comb through it to review the implications. Trump posted a photo last Friday of his meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un from their 2018 summit in Singapore, which has experts speculating whether the U.S. president will turn his attention to North Korea next. Seoul should be ready for all contingencies and developments, and prepare to leverage its alliance with the U.S. should Trump seek dialogue with the North.