ED Iran's lesson for Kim Jong-un
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, front, is seen during an event to celebrate Snipers' Day in this photo released Wednesday. Yonhap
Nuclear weapons won't save North Korean leader
U.S. strikes against Iran and the killing of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, along with key military officials, following the Donald Trump administration’s capture of Venezuelan autocratic leader Nicolas Maduro, have sparked a debate in South Korea: Will North Korean leader Kim Jong-un be next?
Skeptics appear to have gained the upper hand. They argue that Iran and North Korea are fundamentally different because, unlike Iran, North Korea possesses nuclear weapons — dozens of them.
Ellen Kim, director of academic affairs at the Washington-based think tank Korea Economic Institute of America, said it would be far riskier for the U.S. to pursue a military option against nuclear-armed North Korea. Kim also noted that North Korea’s two allies, China and Russia, stand behind Pyongyang — another factor that could constrain any potential U.S. military operation against the North.
A similar view has been expressed in South Korea. Rep. Park Jie-won of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) said the conflicts in the Middle East would likely strengthen the North Korean leader’s confidence in nuclear weapons.
“North Korean leader Kim would have felt his heart skip a beat when he heard that Iran’s supreme leader died during the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran,” Park said during a radio show. “But Kim would also think that North Korea and Iran are different. As long as the North possesses nuclear weapons, no one — not even the U.S. — would dare consider launching a military strike against it. I think he would have that kind of confidence.”
Experts say the U.S. military action in Iran will likely reinforce the North Korean leader’s belief that nuclear weapons serve as the ultimate security guarantee. As a result, Pyongyang may move to further strengthen its nuclear capabilities.
They are partly right — but not entirely.
The fact that North Korea possesses dozens of nuclear weapons would indeed make it far more difficult for the Trump administration to replicate the same type of military operation carried out in “nuclear-free” Iran. But this does not necessarily mean the U.S. would never consider any kind of military action against a nuclear-armed North Korea.
North Korea is increasingly becoming a threat to the United States, not to mention East Asia. Since its first launch of a Hwasong-12 missile in 2017, North Korea has tested its Hwasong-series missiles dozens of times. Pyongyang claims it has successfully developed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of carrying nuclear warheads that can reach the U.S. mainland. However, this claim has yet to be fully verified.
North Korea is believed to have succeeded in miniaturizing nuclear warheads. Experts say the country has also made significant progress in ICBM-related technology, including its transition from liquid-fuel to solid-fuel missiles within the Hwasong series. Unlike liquid-fuel missiles, solid-propellant ICBMs can be launched almost instantly without a lengthy fueling process. They are also harder to detect and target with preemptive strikes.
Despite this progress, North Korea is not believed to have yet mastered atmospheric reentry technology. It remains unconfirmed whether its nuclear warheads can survive the extreme heat and vibration encountered when reentering the Earth’s atmosphere. If North Korea successfully overcomes this critical technological hurdle — either independently or through a technology transfer from Russia — its ICBMs would become an existential threat to the U.S.
In other words, North Korea’s threat to the U.S. is still evolving.
Will Washington wait until Pyongyang fully masters this sensitive technology? The answer is clear: it will not. Washington will not allow Pyongyang to gain the capability to strike the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons. It could take preemptive action to prevent such a catastrophic scenario. From Washington’s perspective, further advances in North Korea’s nuclear and missile technologies are unacceptable.
The capture of Maduro and the killing of Iran’s supreme leader were made possible in part by artificial intelligence-assisted surveillance and intelligence. For autocrats like North Korean leader Kim, there may be virtually nowhere to hide as technology increasingly enables intelligence agencies to track leaders wherever they go.
North Korea’s pursuit of additional nuclear weapons and more sophisticated capabilities could ultimately prove self-destructive. Rather than ensuring the regime’s security, it could make the North Korean leader an even greater target.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the U.S. strikes against Iran would send a signal to North Korea. “We’re going to deal with Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and that will send plenty of signals in the process,” he said.
North Korea should carefully study the lessons of recent U.S. military actions against Iran and Venezuela. Building more bombs may not strengthen the regime’s security — it could ultimately put it at greater risk.