ED Violent path to ceasefire
Israeli soldiers search for survivors amid the rubble of residential buildings destroyed by an Iranian missile strike that killed several people in Beersheba, Israel, Tuesday. AP-Yonhap
Korea faces unprecedented geopolitical and geo-economic challenges
After the United States carried out direct airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities amid the Israel-Iran conflict, a ceasefire appears to have been reached, to the relief of most. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on his social media platform the start of a 24-hour phased-in ceasefire and an "Official END" to the war.
During the past 12 days, lives, livelihoods and cities have been destroyed along with the targeted facilities. In addition, due to the strategic location of the Strait of Hormuz, effectively controlled by Iran, many states have gone on high alert status to monitor the situation. This includes South Korea, which imports about 70 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, of which 68 percent moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. airstrikes benefited from intense intelligence gathering by Israel's tight-knit intelligence network. This allowed for targeted strikes with bunker busters against the Iranian military's top brass, disabling Iran's air defense shield.
When the Israel-Iran conflict seemed ready to escalate Monday with U.S. airstrikes, oil prices immediately spiked while Korea's bourses dipped, driving Korean government officials to draw up contingency plans. President Lee Jae Myung promptly put the government in an emergency response posture. Whatever contingency plans were discussed or written up since then should be preserved as government protocol.
How the Israel-Iran conflict expanded to involve direct U.S. airstrikes holds multifaceted messages about increased volatility in international relations, as more leaders bring their personalities into the current geopolitical and geo-economic landscape. Leaders' conflicting political will and ambitions add complexity to global challenges. The general assessment is that, though it contradicted the "America First" promises Trump made to his core voters, his actions showed his eventual grasp of military-based hegemonic leadership combined with Israel's willingness to go it alone against Iran, and worked constructively in the end.
Will it work again the next time around? That remains uncertain. Cho Hyun, South Korea's nominee for foreign minister, aptly described the moment as "Everything Everywhere All at Once," in which it becomes difficult to prioritize one thing. Diplomacy requires an intricate set of skills to promote national interests.
For South Korea, which shares a tense border with North Korea, the recent Middle East conflict dictates that such intricate and persuasive logic will be required to work on inter-Korean ties. Also, once the Cabinet members are fully set, the president must aggressively look to establish in-person meetings with leaders at multilateral gatherings and hold bilateral summits with the U.S. president.
With the specter of war dissipating, an intensified effort on the nation's export engine should begin. Korea's exports, from January through May, dropped by nearly 1 percent — 0.9 percent over the same period from the previous year, according to industry ministry data. The fall came despite the increase in semiconductor exports. Furthermore, exports in the second half of this year are expected to drop by 3.8 percent compared to the same period last year, according to the Korea International Trade Association.
More importantly, Korea's negotiating team, led by Yeo Han-koo, engaged in the third round of technical discussions on tariffs with U.S. counterparts, led by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and needs a detailed game plan to alleviate the negative impact of tariffs on Korea. The 90-day moratorium on the 25 percent "reciprocal" tariffs imposed by the U.S. expires on July 8, and the president has said that the government will attend negotiations to ensure the tariffs do not impact Korea more than other nations. We hope the negotiating team produces results that are more ambitious than that, persuading them that Korea's contributions and the comparative competitiveness of its shipbuildling sector can benefit the U.S.
The ever-shifting and global-scale developments require prompt action. Lee and the presidential office should also push aggressively for a summit meeting with Trump as soon as possible.