ED Geopolitical economy of tech

Korea must have clear priorities and resilient responses

Technology has led humanity to civilization. But its application has not always had positive effects on human life. Throughout history, technology has changed the face of warfare, which has proved to be a double-edged sword for humanity.

New technologies are emerging now in an unprecedented manner, going beyond our physical living space. Human life has been expanded to virtual cyberspace and is on its way to reaching outer space. Emerging technologies can potentially bring huge benefits. But they can also cause massive disruptions. This is why technology cannot be delinked from security.

Against this backdrop, international competition in emerging technologies is turning more intense both at the corporate and inter-state levels. Competition in cutting-edge technologies is increasingly perceived as a key determinant of future power distribution. As the pace of technological evolution accelerates, so does the intensity of competition between rivals for technological supremacy both globally and regionally. Korea stands amid this intensifying technological competition.

At the global level, the United States-China strategic rivalry is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, as the aggregate power gap between the two shrinks. It is good news that the two countries recently agreed to manage their competition responsibly to avoid unintended or inadvertent confrontations from escalating into an armed conflict. But it is safer to assume that competition in high-tech areas will not abate, as both believe technological supremacy will be a key factor in determining which country will ultimately emerge as the winner of this hegemonic competition. The focus of competition will be on game-changing technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), quantum computing and bio-engineering as well as space exploration.

In Northeast Asia, North Korea recently launched a military satellite in violation of United Nations sanctions. Apparently, it was timed to counter a satellite launch by South Korea. Similarly, intense cyber warfare is already underway. Drones and other automated weapons systems are reportedly being developed and even deployed.

Global and regional geopolitics will have a significant impact on technological competition. The securitization of technology seems difficult to reverse. But it also seems difficult to practice, as it is affected by global and regional geo-economics. Unlike during the Cold War era, the world economy is more closely interconnected and countries are more interdependent. Global and regional value chains are so complex that any effort to decouple these supply links will turn out to be much harder to achieve than said.

For this reason, the United States is trying to shore up its technology sectors with a focus on a small number of targeted areas, using such analogies as “small yard, high fence" as well as “de-risking rather than de-coupling." But in the real world, translating this analogy into action remains a tall order. It will take time for global and regional value chains to be adjusted both in low-medium and high-tech areas. In the meantime, a certain amount of uncertainty and confusion seems unavoidable.

Coping with uncertainty requires two things. We must prepare for the worst possible case and work for the best possible. For that, we must define clear priorities for our actions. Prevention of the worst case must be given the highest priority. Preparedness must be enhanced to minimize the damage in case prevention fails. This is not easy, but it must be done, and the government must enlist the help of businesses and other private actors in doing so.

To guide this tough task, I hope the following three Ds can be helpful for Korea. The first D is deterrence. Technological capabilities must be upgraded to defend our key infrastructures in all three spaces: physical, cyber, and outer. This is hugely challenging, as we are surrounded by the most powerful players in the world. Korea cannot do this alone. We need to strengthen relationships with our allies and partners who share our interests. We should be multi-aligned on a variety of fronts.

The second D is de-risking. We need to think ahead about all possible contingencies and prepare for each of them. We need to assume that the securitization of emerging technologies will take place in varying forms in each sector. Our response strategy must be catered to each sector and supplemented with concrete risk-mitigation measures.

The third D is diversification. Korea’s dependence on key raw materials in all tech areas is just too high. We need to diversify the sources of imports to be resilient in any possible contingency.

With these 3 Ds backed by clear priorities and resilient responses, Korea can stand up to the challenges of complex geopolitical economy of technology. With that, Korea must and can make one further step forward for the international community. Korea must and can be a bridge-builder in harnessing the benefits of emerging technologies while mitigating the associated risks and threats.

Kim Won-soo (wsk4321@gmail.com) is the former under-secretary-general of the United Nations and high representative for disarmament. He is now a chair professor at Kyung Hee University.