ED Warning against Kim
North Korea cannot rebuild economy with nuclear weapons
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has refrained from disclosing what he will do next following the failure of the second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Hanoi on Feb. 28. A lack of any hints at his next move is in stark contrast to Trump's willingness to resume talks with the North as soon as possible.
Kim's post-summit message to his country came in the form of a letter to a national conference of propaganda officials in Pyongyang last week. He picked economic development as an urgent task, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). In his letter, he emphasized the need to make all-out efforts to build a socialist economy.
One may interpret Kim's message as his intention to keep the momentum for the nuclear talks with the U.S., although he returned home empty-handed. By mentioning economic resuscitation, he could imply that he is still open to dialogue rather than returning to intransigence and hostility. Yet no one knows what he is up to now.
Last week, media reports said there were signs of North Korea rebuilding part of its Tongchang-ri missile test site that it had begun to dismantle last year. South Korea's state intelligence agency said it detected new activity at the Sanum-dong rocket assembly center near Pyongyang that produces the North's intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), including the Hwasonng-15 which is capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
It has yet to be confirmed whether the North's activities are in preparation for launching a missile or a rocket. However, if Pyongyang resumes missile testing that has been halted since 2018, things could certainly go back to square one where “fire and fury” prevailed. That is why Trump said Friday that he would be “very disappointed” if North Korea resumed nuclear or missile tests.
It is certain that Trump wanted to deliver a warning to the Kim regime about possible weapons testing. At the same time the U.S. president said his relationship with Kim remained good, despite reaching no deal at the Vietnam summit. This means that Trump is pursuing further engagement with Pyongyang to clinch a foreign policy win on the North Korean nuclear issue.
It is now up to Kim whether he continues to talk with the U.S. or returns to saber-rattling and nuclear blackmail. He may want to talk about the economy while preparing for missile or nuclear tests. But he must realize that he can never revive the crippled economy without giving up his nuclear arsenal.
The collapse of the high-stakes Hanoi summit appears to have consolidated the positions of hard-line U.S. officials such as National Security Adviser John Bolton. This re-emergence of the hawks might make it more difficult for North Korea to get security guarantees and sanctions relief in return for what is called simultaneous and phased denuclearization.
Against the North's wishes for step-by-step nuclear disarmament and sanctions relief, the Trump administration is reportedly opting for an “all or nothing” strategy. This approach may indicate Trump's return to his early hard-line stance, which calls for no sanctions relief until complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization.
We hope Kim continues to talk. The longer he drags his feet, the more his economy will suffer. If that happens, there will be little chance of economic revival or, for that matter, regime survival.