ed Corralling N. Korea

Int’l community as united as ever after Iran deal

This time, the outlook is totally different for North Korea than it has ever been before, and chances are that its leader Kim Jong-un can’t get away with a long-range missile or nuclear test.

First, the world has become wiser about its brinkmanship with stronger confidence than ever after a 15-year freeze slapped on Iran’s nuclear program through the joint efforts of the P5+1 (The United States, China, France, Britain, Russia, plus Germany). This momentum against nuclear weapons is expected to continue, painting Pyongyang further into a corner. The North relied on its Cold War-era allies -- China and Russia -- to deflect pressures from South Korea and the U.S. Now, by some important indications, the ideological bond appears to be giving way.

China has repeatedly indicated that it won’t indulge its troublemaking ally any more.

Its state news agency Xinhua predicted that Seoul, Washington and Tokyo would not sit idle against the North’s nuclear test and the United Nations will impose further sanctions. The article was written as to raise the possibility of its consent to strong U.N. measures. The nuanced change in tone came as Beijing-Seoul ties are flourishing with President Xi Jinping confirming his stance of no instability in the Korean Peninsula. Russia was also included in the ongoing efforts to coral the North and sever its nuclear umbilical cord once and for all.

Although it is carefully refraining from a war of words in order to keep alive a chance of better inter-Korean ties ahead of the Oct. 20-26 reunions of separated families, Seoul now has few reservations for getting tough with Pyongyang, perhaps starting anti-Kim Jong-un broadcasts through big loudspeakers that the North feels so dreadful about.

Fresh from the nuclear deal, the U.S. government, led by President Barack Obama, is interested in completing what his Democratic predecessor Bill Clinton did, but was unraveled by his Republic successor George W. Bush. That deal was called “the Geneva Agreement” or “the Agreed Framework” to freeze the North’s nuclear deal. Secretary of State John Kerry was adamant, saying Thursday, “It may take more than sanctions” against the North because of its isolated economy. Kerry also acknowledged the close Xi-Park ties that could help press the North, as he said, “There have been four or five meetings between China and the South Korean president, and additional pressure is being applied on the North.”

The North should know that this momentum will likely keep accelerating as Presidents Park, Xi, Obama, Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin, among others, will attend the U.N summit on sustainable development. Obama will hold summits with Xi and Park. The North claimed that its missile launch and nuclear test are matters related to sovereignty, and criticized the South and the U.S. for applying a biased double standard. It’s a major case of self-contradiction. If neighbors feel threatened by the North’s sovereignty-based action, it would be within their sovereignty as well to block the tests and retaliate, especially if damages are incurred. About its claim of a double standard, the North should realize that it is not part of any standard at all. For the North, the choice cannot be clearer -- either accept the given set of terms of engagement, or else. This time, it won’t be so easy for it to do as it pleases.