ed New era, new opportunity

Leaders must look far ahead, make bold initiatives

Kim Jong-il’s funeral Wednesday marks the end of one era and the beginning of another for the two Koreas. Or at least we hope so. It is of course far from certain, at least judging by the propaganda from Pyongyang overflowing with resolve to follow the path the late leader charted. Again, we hope it’s just paying respect to the deceased.

Most Koreans ― presumably including the new North Korean leadership ― may be realizing by now what another era of Kim Jong-il-style rule would mean. Summing up Kim’s legacy is simple: a dozen primitive nuclear bombs in return for total economic collapse, and resultant chronic famine.

When Kim Jong-il took over the helm from his father 17 years ago, he vowed to attain both military might and economic recovery, as seen in his slogan of a ``strong, prosperous country.” There were times things seemed to go his way, like in 1994, 2000 and 2007. Watching conservative leaders reverse the policies of their liberal predecessors in Washington and Seoul, however, Kim might have resented their democratic systems, unlike his authoritarian, one-man rule.

What may make Kim turn in his grave, however, will be the belated realization that the world has ― and will ― never let the North have both.

If the late dictator had really wished success for his country and his third son, he should have told him not to follow his way.

If not, Kim Jong-un must learn from his father’s failure. It’s not that the senior Kim didn’t attempt some economic reforms in his own, limited way. It’s hard to know whether the failure is due more to Kim Jong-il’s own limitations or the adherence to vested interests by the North Korean establishment, mainly the military. But the North’s experiments over the past decade show reforms cannot succeed without opening up the country.

Awaiting the junior Kim is a tight-rope walk, in which he must lead his country to maximal openness and reform, while provoking the existing interest groups minimally. In other words, for the so-called “Gang of Four” ― the young Kim, his aunt Kim Kyung-hui, uncle Jang Song-taek, and new military strongman Ri Yong-ho ― the military-first policy of the late leader should remain just a slogan but not the actual administrative principle if and when the 29-year-old completes the power succession process without a hitch.

So far, the transfer seems to be going smoothly, as seen by the rapid addition of key titles and extreme glorification of the young successor by the North’s propaganda machine. Kim Jong-un has acquired in just 10 days what his father won in three years, although it is not clear whether it reflects North Koreans’ confidence or lack thereof in the new leadership and the country’s future.

All this explains why regional watchers are paying close attention to the annual joint editorials by North Korea’s official media outlets this weekend, as well as the New Year’s message from President Lee Myung-bak, which will contain some response to the former.

We hope the leaders of both Koreas will make bold initiatives based on long-term perspectives and historic missions to open a new era on the Korean Peninsula.