Bad learning curve

North should not go unpunished for attacks

North Korea’s artillery attack on a South Korean island on Tuesday was an act of unprovoked aggression. The indiscriminate shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, near the inter-Korean maritime border in the West Sea, was a sheer violation of the armistice agreement signed at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. It also constituted a crime against humanity as it was waged against civilians, claiming the lives of two residents and two marines.

The brutal attack was the first of its kind in 57 years since the internecine war came to a close with a truce, not a peace treaty. (The two Koreas are still technically at war). It was a new type of aggression that could not be matched by a set of previous provocations that had mostly targeted naval vessels or the tense sea border itself. The artillery barrage came nearly eight months after the North torpedoed the South’s warship Cheonan in the West Sea, killing 46 sailors.

Now, we have to ask the question: what has made the North ever more provocative and emboldened in its military adventurism? There are some plausible causes: to tighten Kim Jong-il’s grip on power, to speed up the dynastic inheritance of power to Kim’s youngest son Jong-un, or to extract more concessions or aid from the South or the United States. Whatever the reason, the latest attack must have been a premeditated and well-calculated move to escalate tensions.

Most of all, the Kim regime has increasingly been accustomed to a bad learning curve that the world’s last Stalinist country generally goes unpunished for any provocations. If past experiences are any guide, the North will never give up its saber-rattling and nuclear gambling. Whenever the communist state commits provocative acts, Seoul vows to take stern and resolute action against the North. But it usually put words before action since there are few options to teach the recalcitrant North a lesson.

As seen in the Cheonan tragedy, Seoul failed to hold Pyongyang culpable for the ship sinking and to prod the international community to impose new sanctions on the North. People can still remember what President Lee Myung-bak said after the naval incident. Lee promised to take stern action and do whatever it takes to hold the North accountable for the ship attack. If the Lee administration had done what he really meant, the North would not have made additional provocation.

An adage goes: offense is the best form of defense. This does not mean the South should wage a preemptive strike on the North. We want to point to Seoul’s inability to punish Pyongyang for its provocation. The government has long been on the defensive, precluding any military retaliation against enemy attacks to prevent a war on the peninsula. But, the South cannot maintain deterrence as long as it is long on words but short on action in dealing with the hostile and brutal regime.