Nonproliferation review

There's still room for more US initiatives

A world without nuclear weapons is one of the main foreign policy agendas laid out by U.S. President Barack Obama. And emblematic of this ambitious goal was the U.S. disclosure of the size of its nuclear arsenal for the first time on Monday.

Even more important than the revealed number of U.S. nuclear warheads ― which did not deviate much from experts' estimation at around 5,100 ― was Washington's commitment to openness about its arms programs. Whether the U.S. initiatives will lead to corresponding moves from other nuclear powers ― let alone change the behavior of nuclear outlaws such as North Korea and Iran ― is anybody's guess.

This means other ``official'' holders of atomic weapons, namely China, France and Britain, should show more eagerness to reduce their stockpiles during the ongoing U.N. conference to review the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Not only have these three countries failed to meet reduction schedules, but also have kept modernizing their arsenals.

Also crucial for a nuclear weapons-free world is how to deal with ``unofficial'' nuclear powers ― Israel, India and Pakistan ― which are virtually allowed to have atomic weapons outside the NPT regime.

The key lies in whether the United States can persuade Israel to agree to the establishment of the nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. The idea was agreed among regional members in 1995 but has yet to make much progress due to Israel's opposition. As long as there are no changes in Tel Aviv's position, dissuading Iran to abandon its nuclear ambition will remain extremely difficult, if not downright impossible. Likewise, North Korea will continue to cite the U.S. nuclear cooperation with another NPT outsider, India, as the example of Washington's double standards and as an excuse for its own weapons development programs.

In most appearances, of the two current biggest nuclear headaches, the North Korean case seems to be far easier to handle, if not solve completely, than the Iranian problem, in view of both the complexity of regional geopolitics and the number of countries involved ― provided the Obama administration is genuinely serious in producing some visible progress in its global nonproliferation efforts.

Much depends on the U.S. determination to no longer rely on nuclear weapons as a means of maintaining or enhancing global security. A recent case in point was Washington's failure to drop Pyongyang and Teheran from its first-strike options. The U.S. officials might refute North Korea has never ceased its nuclear programs since the 1990s, but, seen from a more objective viewpoint, there were many opportunities to dissuade Pyongyang had Washington decided so.

It takes two to tango but the final decision is up to the bigger partner.