Futile Face-off

Dialogue Is Only Way to End Escalating Tension

Washington and Pyongyang today seem like two boxers who are exhausting themselves even before they enter the ring.

In France on Saturday, U.S. President Barack Obama said, ``We are not intending to continue a policy of rewarding provocation." His secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, signaled the U.S. administration was seeking a way to interdict North Korean sea and air shipments, possibly with China's help. Days ago, Defense Secretary Robert Gates also said, ``I am tired of buying the same horse twice."

These remarks from three most important officials in U.S. foreign policy have left little doubt that Washington is about to give up dialogue and resort to tighter sanctions and other hard-ball tactics. As a countermeasure, Pyongyang sentenced two American journalists it has detained since March to 12 years of hard labor Monday.

The world's last Stalinist holdout also made clear recently it would soon test-fire an inter-continental ballistic missile, while hinting that the regime's nuclear weapons development would also include a uranium enrichment program.

Under an optimistic scenario, all of these recent developments could set the stage for the opening of U.S.-North Korea bilateral talks with the negotiations for the early release of the two TV reporters as a catalyst. Former Vice President Al Gore or New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson may visit Pyongyang, possibly with some additional missions, leading to the resumption of the full-scale dialogue between the two estranged countries.

There are far gloomier forecasts, however, based on the assumption that both Pyongyang and Washington are misinterpreting each other's actions. Some North Korea experts, including former Foreign Minister Han Seung-joo, believe the ongoing nuclear and missile buildup in the North is aimed more at completing the isolationist regime's military capacity to deter possible U.S. attacks than goading Washington into direct talks or even paving the road for smooth power transfer from Kim Jong-il to his son Jong-un.

North Korean leadership for its part might be forgetting ― fatally ― the U.S. Democrats are far tougher than Republicans when it comes to nuclear proliferation issue, as has been confirmed in repeated warnings from President Obama. The worst nightmare for North Koreans, or all Koreans for that matter, would come if the U.S. leader, cornered by political opponents for being too dovish toward Muslims and Latin American leftist governments, decides to turn hawkish toward Communist North as an exception.

Seoul should actively persuade Washington that no approaches other than diplomatic ones could be options on this peninsula, on which most people and industrial facilities are situated within 50 miles from the military demarcation line. The South Korean government also ought to maintain some leverage, diplomatic and economic, to at least dissuade Pyongyang from taking a rash, self-destructive act at the last moment. Contrarily, the Lee Myung-bak administration has taken the lead in aggravating the situation, blockading any room for its role as a mediator.

The U.S. administration should realize the only solution should be found in all-inclusive negotiations, in which they normalize their relationship and sign a peace treaty in return for complete abandonment of the North's nuclear programs, and move toward it. Needless to say, Seoul's role should be to encourage, not discourage, Washington, to take the diplomatic option.