Missile Crisis

Dilemma Is How to Tame Recalcitrant North Korea

It is imminent that North Korea will test-fire a long-range missile in the guise of a satellite launch. A U.S. counter-proliferation official said Wednesday that North Korea has put what is believed to be a long-range ballistic missile on a launch pad in what could be a preparation for launch.

First we cannot but express regret and dismay at the North's move toward provocation and hostility. Pyongyang disclosed earlier that it will launch a rocket carrying a communication satellite intended to orbit the earth around April 4 to 8, insisting that the plan is part of its peaceful space program. But no one has accepted the North's claim. There is no difference between a satellite launch and a missile launch as the North uses the same rocket, the Taepodong-2.

It is clear that the potential rocket firing would be in violation of the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1781, which was adopted to impose sanctions on North Korea after its missile tests in 2006. If it presses ahead with a new missile test in the face of stern warnings from South Korea, the United States, Japan and other countries, the North would only escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula and further isolate itself from the international community.

It is hard to rule out the possibility of an immediate military action by the United States and Japan to intercept the to-be-fired rocket over the Pacific Ocean. The North may only provide a target for the United States and Japan to experiment their missile defense capabilities. More worrisome is that a possible interception of the Taepodong-2 could lead to a military clash between the North and its enemies ― the South, the United States and Japan.

Pyongyang indicated Tuesday that it would withdraw from the six-nation talks for the North's denuclearization if the U.N. Security Council imposes sanctions against it for its alleged satellite launch. The North's threat is apparently aimed at stepping up its notorious brinkmanship tactics with nuclear baiting and saber rattling. Last week, Pyongyang said that it has rejected further U.S. food aid. The rejection is certainly intended to give the United States fewer options for effective sanctions against it after its rocket firing.

Judging from its ever-intensifying provocative actions, the North has certainly no intention of giving up its nuclear ambitions and development of missiles and other weapons of mass destruction. It seems that the Kim Jong-il regime is just trying to consolidate its rule by test-firing the Taepodong-2 ahead of the first session of the newly elected Supreme People's Assembly early next month. It is also apparent that the North is desperate to find an excuse to bring about the collapse of the six-party talks and continue its nuclear weapons program.

There is little doubt that the Kim regime will step up its efforts to have direct negotiations with the United States after the missile launch in order to extract more concessions from the Barack Obama administration. Thus, it is important that Seoul and Washington should not play into Pyongyang's hands.

The two allies must strengthen cooperation to find ways to effectively deal with threats from North Korea. They have to show that the North's brinkmanship tactics would eventually fail, while using the combination of carrots and sticks to prod the world's last Stalinist country to return to the path of denuclearization, reconciliation and peace. But the dilemma is how to tame the recalcitrant North and work together with it for a better future.