Escalating Tensions
North Korea Moving Toward Brinkmanship Tactics
It is disturbing that North Korea is escalating tensions with South Korea apparently due to President Lee Myung-bak's tougher stance toward the reclusive country. Since Lee set denuclearization as a condition for better inter-Korean ties and more economic aid last week, the North has taken a flurry of steps against the South. There are growing worries that the world's last Stalinist country is shifting from dialogue and negotiation to confrontation in response to Lee's departure from his predecessors' policy of active engagement with the North.
On Friday, North Korea test-fired several short-range missiles on its side of the West Sea. The missile test came one day after Pyongyang expelled 11 South Korean officials from the liaison office at the inter-Korean industrial complex in Gaeseong, just north of the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) dividing the two Koreas. Seoul officials made a low-key reaction to the test-firing in order to avoid any further provocative acts by the North. The isolated country also warned of a military clash over the de facto maritime borderline in the West Sea, demanding the nullification of the Northern Limit Line (NLL).
The presidential office dismissed the missile launches as part of the North's ordinary military exercises, while the Defense Ministry vowed to stick to the sea borderline. Not a few people see the North's move as an expression of its dissatisfaction with Seoul's emphasis on reciprocity in inter-Korean relations. Lee has made clear that his administration would not continue the Sunshine Policy of former liberal Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun. His hardened policy means an end to unconditional economic assistance to the impoverished communist state. Against this backdrop, the recalcitrant North might go back to its outmoded trademark tactics of brinkmanship.
What's more worrisome is that the North may go to the extreme of firmly holding on to its anachronistic mode of survival, as seen in the past with its long-range missile tests and underground nuclear experiment in 2006. It is obvious that the North is trying to test the patience of South Korea, the United States and other neighbors by persistently refusing to abide by the six-nation agreement on complete, irrevocable and verifiable denuclearization. South Korea and its allies should not let North Korea act as a nuclear pariah any more.
The international community must not rule out the possibility of the Kim Jong-il regime dragging its feet on its denuclearization commitments until the end of U.S. President George W. Bush's term. The regime may believe that it will have more wiggle room to deal with the U.S. if neo-conservatives exit Washington after the November presidential election. Growing tensions are detrimental to the interests of both Koreas, other countries in Northeast Asia and around the globe. The question is how to prod the North to come back to the table to resolve pending issues through dialogue and peaceful means.