The meaning of US midterm elections
Troy Stangarone
The resounding defeat of Republicans in the midterm elections has reshaped the political dynamics of the United States.
It has also raised questions about what this shift in political power means for agreements Korea concluded with the Donald Trump administration. In the short term, the only certainty is that the election results will create greater uncertainty in dealing with the U.S. The real question for policymakers is what these shifts may mean for U.S. policy over the medium to long term.
Policymakers in Korea need to view the elections through the lens of both their immediate implications and the broader trajectory of U.S. politics. The beginning of the Trump era pulled the U.S. off a largely bipartisan foreign policy course. Assuming that the Republican defeat or Trump’s departure from the White House in 2029 will return U.S. policy to its pre-Trump setting misunderstands current political dynamics. At the same time, assuming the U.S. is now locked into a trajectory set by Trump would also be a mistake.
The election was historic not only in scale but also in geography. While some votes are still being counted, Democrats are on track to win the national House popular vote by 13 percentage points, their largest electoral victory in 50 years. The last shift of comparable scale followed the Watergate scandal. Voter turnout is still being tabulated but is already the second-highest midterm turnout since 1914, surpassed only by 2018 during Trump’s first term. Democrats also scored victories in states such as South Carolina and Kansas that were previously considered beyond their reach. The election demonstrated that even amid heightened polarization, significant political change remains possible when voters believe the country is off track.
It is also clear that voters want change. The election was fought largely on affordability and the Iran war. Despite Trump entering office pledging to lower prices and avoid new foreign wars, voters drew a clear connection between his tariff policies and rising costs. The war against Iran not only broke Trump’s pledge but also intensified inflationary pressures. In exit polls, 89 percent of voters said the cost of living was a crucial or major factor in their vote, while 74 percent said the same about the Iran war. Democrats will need to address both affordability and the war’s economic consequences if they hope to avoid a reversal of fortune in 2028.
In the short term, the results will create significant uncertainty for Korea. Although Trump accepted the election outcome, his decision to name Stephen Miller chief of staff suggests he does not intend to change course. Korea will therefore need to balance relations with Trump while adjusting to an uncertain future.
Even if Republicans had maintained control of Congress, progress on amending the 123 Agreement, developing nuclear submarines and transferring Op-Con would have remained challenging. Democrats will need to approach these issues not only through traditional policy lenses but also in the context of geopolitical change and a desire to repair U.S. alliances.
The election also represents a break with the Trump era, and what comes next remains unclear. Although the Biden administration maintained many of the first Trump administration’s tariffs, the election has shown that tariffs are unpopular. Only 21 percent of voters believe they have helped the economy, while 66 percent believe they have hurt it. Democrats have traditionally been the more protectionist party, but the election sends a clear signal that the public does not support tariffs at their current level.
In the current Congress, Democrats supported lower tariffs on Canada and a few other cases, but which tariffs they may seek to reduce, or which presidential tariff authorities they may seek to reform, remains an open question.
How America’s trade policy evolves matters greatly for Korea as it approaches the final two years of the Trump administration. Seoul needs to prevent additional tariff increases, but the assumptions underpinning its agreement with the United States may no longer apply. More importantly, there is no assurance that the next administration will share Trump’s views about the projects Korea should support through its U.S. investments. Projects such as the Alaska pipeline may never move forward.
The election also sets the stage for a more stable artificial intelligence (AI) policy. Concern about AI and data centers was one of the few issues on which Democratic and Republican voters broadly agreed. If newly elected Democratic governors and a Democratic Congress can implement AI policies that address public concerns, they could create long-term stability that benefits Korea, even if short-term freezes or restrictions slow data center construction.
The rise of Trump disrupted decades of established U.S. policy. But the recent election makes clear that no 2028 presidential contender can win with policies similar to Trump's. It has also opened the door to a broader political realignment that is only beginning to take shape. Over the next two years, Korea will need to prepare for that shift while managing a Trump administration that may resist the changing political winds.
Troy Stangarone is a visiting senior fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America. The views expressed here are the author’s alone.