Miscellany on the eve of a blue tsunami in the US
Nov. 3 in the United States is midterm election day, indeed the most critical midterm election of my lifetime, as U.S. voters will pass judgment on President Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. Alas, my editor did me no favors by setting me a Nov. 4 (Korea time) publication date for my monthly column. That is, here in Seoul, my deadline is during the election, which means I don’t have any results to analyze, yet it is too late for me to pontificate ahead of time on the election’s possible outcomes.
Because they are predictable, event anniversaries and events scheduled in advance (like elections) are a columnist’s best friend (if you don’t believe me, look at my column history, in which I would estimate that nearly half concerns anniversaries (9/11, martial law, etc.) or dated events (summits, Olympics, elections). Deprived of my best friend this election season, I’ll have to make do with some prognostication and miscellaneous observations about U.S. politics.
To start with predictions — which will make me publicly accountable! — the Democrats will get about 52 percent of the national vote and win between 230 and 235 seats in the House of Representatives. This will give Democratic leadership a comfortable margin for going after the Trump administration for its galactic-scale malfeasance and desecration of the U.S. Constitution. The Senate will be tighter: the Democrats will win a slim majority of 52 seats, in the process flipping North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas and one of Alaska, Kansas or Iowa. The Republican Party will contest the election results, but only half-heartedly due to the obvious nature of the anti-MAGA directional shift in U.S. politics.
The big question moving forward will be how Democrats use their congressional powers— notably budgetary, investigative hearings, impeachment — to rein in Trump’s imperial presidency and the grift and graft of MAGA. With a Democratic House of Representatives and/or Senate, Trump’s budgetary prospects will dim, and it will be interesting to see how the Democrats use their fiscal authority to limit funding of Homeland Security, Trump’s Washington vanity construction projects, and the Pentagon in general and the Iran War specifically. As for oversight and investigations, there are so many goons and crackpots deserving of congressional hearings and impeachment that the biggest challenge for Democrats will be choosing their targets and finding enough time in the day to go after them all. Beyond Trump himself, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is high on the list for impeachment, along with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Attorney General Todd Blanche. Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought is also a solid candidate, since he has repurposed his position to focus on refusing to spend congressionally mandated outlays, thus undercutting the congressional “power of the purse.” Elon Musk may also come under the hammer. This list is just the tip of the iceberg. That said, Democratic leadership may well (mis)calculate that more limited political warfare — focusing only on selected officials — will make them appear less polarizing and thus prepare them better for the 2028 election.
And of course even if all the Cabinet officials named above are impeached, none of them will be convicted in the Senate, which requires a supermajority. Nor will they likely face justice for corruption and other crimes — notably abuse of power — they may have committed, since Trump will likely issue mass pardons for his henchmen. I’ve long hated the presidential pardon power, which is a toxic holdover from the era of absolute monarchy. Trump has made it much worse, obviously, basically using it as a vehicle for corruption and abuse of power, but investing any head of state or government — especially in democracies — with the sole power to pardon is a travesty that should be abolished in favor of independent, neutral pardon commissions.
Yet another impact of the election will be the coming battle for the future of the two parties. If Republicans are crushed and MAGA is electorally discredited, it is an open question as to what will emerge in its place, as Trump has destroyed the ostensible traditional sources of Republican spirit (liberal economics and trade, honest government, Christian values, etc.). Democrats will have their own ideological confrontation between a traditional mainstream wing and a progressive movement in ascendence. Traditional mainstream Democrats are fearful of playing hardball, breaking congressional decorum and norms, and generally doing anything politically interesting or effective; younger, progressive Democrats see an opportunity in the post-MAGA political wasteland to seize on initiatives (affordability measures, health care, immigration, Israel policy) and a political aesthetic (aggressive, brash) that they believe can found new norms favoring them. Traditional mainstream Democrats should not be underestimated — they have held power in the party for a reason — but the time of progressives may have arrived in the U.S.
Trump will be rebuked on Nov. 3, but his superpower is his shamelessness; it is the key to his sociopathy. He will not go gently into that good night, but rather rage and try to tear the U.S. apart.
Mason Richey is a professor of international politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies and president of the Korea International Studies Association.