Europe must prepare for the worst
Janis A. Emmanouilidis
BRUSSELS — What if the greatest threat to the European Union is not Russian aggression, Chinese exports, or US President Donald Trump, but actually comes from within the bloc?
Such a scenario becomes more likely by the day, as illiberal, nationalist forces grow stronger ahead of elections in Spain, France, Poland, and several German states. If these parties come to power, they could hollow out the EU from within, undermining its fundamental values and obstructing collective action. Supporters of the bloc in its current liberal-democratic form must recognize the gathering storm and be prepared with new political strategies and institutional arrangements.
For decades, European integration has rested on the assumption that, despite recurring crises, member states were committed to the EU’s survival and success. That assumption no longer holds. Anti-European forces now challenge not just EU policies, but the underlying logic of integration, from shared sovereignty to common rules.
But instead of seeking to dissolve or exit the bloc, Europe’s far right and populists have moved on to another approach: neutering the EU as a political force by weakening supranational institutions, restoring the primacy of national sovereignty, and expanding veto powers. This would reduce the EU to an arena for bargaining between national governments.
Consider Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland, which recently presented its “new deal for Europe” in the European Parliament. The AfD plan calls for abolishing the directly elected Parliament and replacing it with a body of delegates appointed by national parliaments.
The AfD also proposes severely curtailing the European Commission’s powers, restricting the primacy of EU law, transforming the European Court of Justice into an intergovernmental arbitration panel, and allowing Germany to opt out of common EU policies. Along the same lines, Hungary’s Mathias Corvinus Collegium, a think tank funded by Viktor Orbán’s government before his ouster (and which has since been dismantled), last year called for the dissolution of the EU and the establishment of a new intergovernmental “European Economic Union.”
If implemented, these strategies would destroy the EU as we know it. Major achievements, including the single market, a common currency, freedom of movement, independent institutions, and the rules protecting citizens, businesses, and fundamental rights, would be in jeopardy. The collective capacity to provide security, sustain prosperity, and tackle shared challenges would be lost. In an age of “permachange,” marked by geopolitical confrontation, economic insecurity, technological disruption, and democratic backsliding, a paralyzed EU would leave Europeans more vulnerable and less able to shape their future.
That means we must look beyond the EU and consider the future of what I call “EUrope,” a broader concept that encompasses the EU, the European continent, and potential alternative forms of cooperation. More than a geographical or institutional classification, EUrope reflects the ambition to preserve and advance what has made European integration unique: sovereign democracies sharing power, upholding common rules, and shaping their future together. It offers a positive vision of a more capable and crisis- and future-proof bloc that protects its citizens, invests in common public goods, and defends European interests and values.
The first step in realizing this vision is to defend and reform the existing Union. This requires strengthening the EU’s capacity to defend its fundamental values and institutions against internal threats. The EU should be equipped with more effective mechanisms, including stronger forms of financial conditionality, to respond to systematic attempts by member states to undermine its democratic and supranational foundations.
In parallel, a coalition of the willing must be prepared to deepen integration together, preferably within the EU framework and, where necessary, outside of it. In an increasingly heterogeneous EU, unity cannot mean uniformity.
The EU treaties provide for enhanced cooperation, an instrument that allows a minimum of nine member states to pursue advanced integration. Willing governments should use this instrument more ambitiously and, where legally possible, go a step further by committing themselves to majority decision-making among themselves, rather than allowing individual countries to inhibit collective action.
Where these instruments prove insufficient, willing countries may need to cooperate outside the EU framework. Such arrangements must remain exceptional, open to others, compatible with EU law, transparent, subject to democratic scrutiny, and aimed at eventual integration into the Union. They should strengthen supranational integration, not entrench intergovernmental bargaining, as advocated by anti-EU forces.
And in the event that illiberal, nationalist forces incapacitate the EU to such a degree that meaningful reform or deeper integration becomes impossible, the pro-European camp might need to contemplate creating a new supranational entity among willing EU and potentially also non-EU countries. Of course, such an extreme action should be a last resort, and the risks would be considerable, from deeper divisions to weaker institutions. These must be weighed, however, against the potentially greater danger of an EU that is fundamentally incapable of safeguarding and advancing European integration.
Preparing for such a future requires the political capacity to act. Think tanks, independent media, foundations, businesses, and civil-society organizations should build a stronger and better-connected pro-European liberal democratic ecosystem. Learning from the long-term strategies and organizational capacities of illiberal forces, without imitating their methods or compromising democratic principles, such an ecosystem should develop compelling visions of “EUrope,” foster public debate, identify opportunities for deeper integration, and prepare credible alternatives in case of increasing dysfunctionality.
Those seeking to weaken the EU’s supranational foundations are already preparing their radical schemes, like the AfD’s “new deal.” Pro-European forces cannot afford to be less imaginative, determined, or prepared. Europe’s future cannot be left to those fixated on rolling back integration. It is imperative to defend what has already been achieved and to imagine how to advance it. EUrope must prepare for the worst to avoid it.
Janis A. Emmanouilidis is deputy chief executive and director of studies at the European Policy Centre. This article was distributed by Tribune Content Agency.