Time to manage risks of US-NK dialogue
As the signs of resuming dialogue between the United States and North Korea, also the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), emerge with possible dates touted as around November or December this year, South Korea is feeling the pressure just even at the dialogue's potential feasibility. Not only are there domestic political pressures to consider, but the uncertainty and risks surrounding the U.S.-ROK alliance could grow further.
The security situation on the Korean Peninsula is once again in a state of significant flux. U.S. President Donald Trump suspended joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington shortly after holding his first summit in Singapore with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un on June 12, 2018. He did so again this year. However, the current situation is different and complex. With the U.S. midterm elections just less than two months away and the war with Iran dragging on, the Trump administration finds itself in need of a change in momentum and tangible diplomatic achievements.
The most immediate and pressing issue is the lack of clarity regarding the ultimate objective of the talks. Trump has refrained from mentioning North Korea's denuclearization as he seeks to bring Kim, whom he referred to as "little rocket man" and a "pretty smart cookie," back to the negotiating table. However, this approach unsettles allies such as South Korea and Japan. It significantly undermines confidence in U.S. security commitments and pushes allies to seek alternative ways to ensure their own survival.
Meanwhile, Pyongyang currently has little reason to rush back into talks with Washington. Unlike in the past, when North Korea engaged in summits out of a need for sanctions relief, the international security environment has changed. At a time when the U.S., China, Japan, Russia and South Korea are all signaling interest in engaging DPRK, Kim is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach until a negotiating environment favorable to his interests emerges.
In a time of increased unpredictability, friction within the South Korea-U.S. alliance presents an opportunity for DPRK, which continues to treat ROK as a hostile state and reject inter-Korean dialogue. If alliance cohesion were to weaken even further under these circumstances, there is a high probability that North Korea would engage in bilateral talks with the U.S. to fully exploit the rift between Washington and Seoul.
Therefore, this is a critical moment requiring careful management of the alliance between South Korea and the U.S. Seoul and Washington should consider dispatching high-level envoys to address the fallout from the decision to scale back joint military exercises. Both sides should also separate thorny bilateral issues, such as tariffs, investments and the Coupang dispute, from security matters and focus on resolving them through dedicated channels. In addition, Seoul and Washington need new forms of leverage that go beyond existing frameworks in preparation for any possibility of renewed talks between the U.S. and North Korea.
Lee Sun-ho (wkexim@naver.com) is a freelance columnist living in Seoul.