North Korea and US midterm elections
Troy Stangarone
With U.S. President Donald Trump pushing for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, speculation has grown that the two countries could resume nuclear talks, with the U.S. midterm elections seen as a key inflection point. For Trump, negotiations are an opportunity to secure a foreign policy win amid the challenges of the Iran war. North Korea, meanwhile, has historically waited until after elections to read the proverbial tea leaves and assess where its advantages lie — but these common assessments misread the current political circumstances.
Despite conventional wisdom, there is little political upside for Trump in meeting Kim before the elections. Simply put, Americans do not vote on foreign policy. Over the last half century, foreign policy has resonated in elections only when the United States faced a major crisis, such as the Iran hostage situation in 1980 or the early period after 9/11, during the war on terror.
While foreign policy has influenced at least a third of elections over the past half century, voters generally pay more attention to failures than successes. Domestic policy affects Americans’ daily lives, and as former House Speaker Tip O’Neill famously noted, “All politics is local.” The state of the economy, access to health care and education are among the issues Americans typically prioritize at the ballot box.
Foreign policy success without domestic policy success has limited electoral value. In 1991, George H. W. Bush expelled Iraqi forces from Kuwait with a broad international coalition in Operation Desert Storm. His approval rating soared to 89 percent — yet barely a year later, he lost the 1992 presidential election to Bill Clinton due to the recession of 1990–1991, broken promises on taxes and a perceived indifference to public needs.
Bush is not the only leader to suffer defeat despite foreign policy achievements. Winston Churchill guided the United Kingdom through the Second World War, yet his Conservative Party immediately lost to Labour in the postwar election. British voters prioritized domestic economic needs over Churchill’s wartime leadership. This pattern is common in democracies.
If foreign policy plays a role in the upcoming midterm elections, it will be due to the failures of the Iran war and how it has raised prices for consumers. Polling suggests that the top issues for voters are the current state of the economy and affordability. In a Pew Research poll, foreign policy is only the top concern for 4 percent of voters. If another issue is going to break through, it will be voter concerns regarding artificial intelligence and the development of data centers.
Under normal circumstances, North Korea might wait until after the elections to determine whether Trump has been weakened. If North Korea views the elections as a barometer of Trump’s influence, however, it is misreading the current state of U.S. politics.
For more than a decade, Democrats and moderate Republicans have waited for Trump’s influence to wane as the administration is rocked by one scandal after another. While there was a brief period after the 2021 attempted insurrection when it appeared his hold over the Republican Party might fade, he has largely held on to control. With a recent Financial Times poll showing Trump’s approval rating at a low of 33 percent, along with other polls also putting it in the 30s, he has shown resilience in the face of declining approval. Unlike prior presidents, Trump rarely changes course when his popularity declines.
The real issue for talks with North Korea comes from how the political dynamics will shift if Democrats retake control of the House and Senate. Trump would still largely have a free hand in foreign policy. The Hanoi summit didn't fail because the Democrats took control of the House in the 2018 elections. Trump would still have a relatively free hand to cut a deal with Kim as long as North Korea did not require the United States to have the Senate ratify the agreement.
The more significant question is whether the Trump administration will be bogged down in investigations if the Democrats retake the House. This is a likely event that North Korea should factor into its calculations: Trump’s political capital may not change, but his administration’s bandwidth might. That would call for engaging in talks sooner rather than later.
Trump is North Korea’s best chance of reaching a deal with the United States. A reasonable deal struck by Trump is likely to hold because Republicans will not want to be seen as unraveling his legacy and Democrats will have higher priorities should they take the White House in 2028. The midterm elections are largely irrelevant for talks with North Korea. The only question is, does Pyongyang understand that?
Troy Stangarone is a visiting senior fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America. The views expressed herein are those of the author alone.