Going around, not through the strait – and beyond
I remember seeing various charts and graphs in school about the end of oil. Those charts concerned Middle Eastern states. Petroleum is perhaps still the world's most vital source of fuel. A recent article in Science Insights (Nov. 18, 2025) indicates that global reserves, at current production levels and use, will last another 100 years. Hannah Osborne in Live Science (May 31, 2024) cited a 2023 Rystad survey indicating 1.6 trillion barrels remain on earth.
Iran correctly views Korea as an ally of the United States. While that is a simplification of Korea’s many allies and friends, including a great many nations in the Middle East, as a result, Iran won't guarantee safe passage for Seoul’s freight container behemoths. The recent damage to one such cargo container in May from weapons manufactured in Iran has done nothing to calm matters.
Certainly, there will continue to be a lot of concern over oil in the Middle East and elsewhere. Korea depends on the Middle East for 70 percent of its oil and 30 percent of its natural gas (Korea Times, March 3, 2026). It has begun to use an alternative route to get these resources via the Red Sea. This is a sensible move that should be imitated for the future.
Having 30 percent of anything travelling through the Strait is a recipe for blackmail and global chaos. The recent fool’s errand in Iran has only made this worse. Unless Israel and the U.S. commit to a ground war in Iran, they can achieve neither regime change nor an end to Iran’s nuclear program. Their efforts have emboldened the new Iranian regime and, indeed, have given it the idea of further monetizing the Strait. In many quarters, it's being called utter stupidity.
Korea should be credited with giving the world another great idea. The East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, or Petroline, of Saudi Arabia terminates in Yanbu, the port that South Korea is using to bypass the uncertainty and chaos of the strait. It can handle less than one-third of the oil that flows through the strait at present. Nonetheless, it is safer and could be further developed, along with sister ports in the United Arab Emirates. Experts note that a pipeline from Iraq through Saudi Arabia and the Trans-Arabian Pipeline, also called Tapline, could also be developed for further lessening dependence on the strait.
We could develop many routes over land and sea to further decrease global dependence on the strait. Likewise, the growing viability of electric vehicles should continue to reduce the need for so much oil. Korea is advancing in this area, with over 400,000 units produced last year, amounting to 11 percent of sales, with a goal of 20 percent of sales by 2025.
Pohang’s Yeongil Bay was thought to hold sizable oil and gas reserves, enough for up to four years of oil and 29 to 30 years of gas. Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) was pursuing this source of fuel but has abandoned the project. The sites were found not to be viable sources.
KNOC also has a 100-million-gallon petroleum reserve, enough to last Korea for the better part of a year.
I also think it’s a good development that Korea and Japan are moving to strengthen their cooperation in terms of fossil fuels. This includes stabilizing supply lines, swaps and cooperation in times of emergency.
There are other possible sources of oil in Asia that should be considered for further development. Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines are thought to have possible sources as yet unexplored.
With an unpredictable situation in the Middle East, it’s prudent for other nations to imitate Korea's path. This will only be a matter of increasing salience as the world moves away from petroleum toward cleaner fuels as global stocks are depleted. The Middle East’s nations and principalities will experience many profound political changes in time. Global supply chains depend upon reliable networks of supply and transit. Whether Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and leaders realize it, they are sowing the seeds of a less happy future by pushing global economies away from reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
Bernard Rowan (browan10@yahoo.com) is associate provost for contract administration and academic services, and professor of political science, at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and a past visiting professor at the Graduate School of Public Administration, Hanyang University.