UAE-driven geopolitical earthquake in Middle East
Ma Young-sam
The Middle East conflict has shaken the balance of power in the region. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries were deeply shocked when Iran launched retaliatory attacks against them following the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran that began on Feb. 28. Although divided along Sunni-Shia lines, the Gulf states had long tried to preserve cautious ties with Iran in the spirit of Islamic brotherhood. The attacks shattered that fragile balance.
Among the Gulf states, the United Arab Emirates suffered the heaviest damage.
More than 2,700 Iranian missiles and drones struck Emirati territory. Ironically, the UAE suffered bigger destruction than Israel itself, one of the direct warring parties. Around 240 casualties were reported. The Burj Al Arab Tower, the famous 7-star hotel, caught fire, while the Dubai International Financial Centre, refineries, petrochemical facilities and gas infrastructure were heavily damaged. Jebel Ali Port, the world’s largest man-made harbor, and Amazon Web Services facilities were also hit.
Most symbolic was the collapse of Dubai’s image as the “safe paradise in the desert.” As missiles and drones rained down, tourists fled. The once vibrant global city suddenly looked like a ghost town.
Why did Iran target the UAE so intensely?
The answer lies in the UAE’s bold transformation and strategic choices. The Emirates became the first Arab state to pursue sweeping modernization and openness on such a large scale. Through ambitious investments, technological innovation and aggressive economic diversification, it turned what once seemed impossible into reality. Dubai and Abu Dhabi emerged as global financial, logistical and tourism hubs.
The UAE also broke diplomatic taboos. In September 2020, it joined the Abraham Accords signed at the White House, establishing formal diplomatic ties with Israel. The agreement marked a historic shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Iran has long portrayed Israel as an illegitimate state that should disappear from the map. Iran now views the UAE as a destabilizing force in the Middle East, making the UAE a primary target for Iranian strategic focus.
What followed was even more striking.
Facing relentless Iranian attacks, UAE President H.H. Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sent an SOS message to Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded swiftly. Israel deployed its advanced Iron Dome air-defense system, the laser-based Iron Beam system and the Spectro drone-detection network. Israeli technicians and military personnel were also dispatched to operate the systems under wartime conditions.
The results were immediate. Interception rates improved sharply, and major cities and strategic infrastructure were better protected. One senior Emirati figure reportedly remarked: “Now we know who our true friends are when crisis comes.” The statement carried deep geopolitical implications. It reflected a growing recognition among Gulf states that security cooperation with Israel may be strategically necessary.
The UAE made another dramatic move by announcing its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+.
For years, Saudi Arabia has led the oil cartel by limiting production to maintain relatively high oil prices. The UAE, however, wanted to expand output in order to finance its ambitious reform projects and future industries. Frustrated by repeated restrictions, Abu Dhabi chose an independent path. If other member states eventually follow the UAE, OPEC’s traditional influence over global energy markets could weaken significantly. This war is no longer just a regional conflict. It is beginning to reshape the global energy order and the broader geopolitical landscape.
The conflict may also accelerate a wider geopolitical realignment in the Middle East. Gulf states that experienced Iranian attacks firsthand are now asking a fundamental question: Who can truly help protect us? Some of them may pay closer attention to Israel’s advanced defense systems and intelligence capabilities. Saudi Arabia, which had seriously considered normalization with Israel before the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023, will become a key indicator of where the region is heading next. If Riyadh eventually takes a changing path, the diplomatic map of the Middle East could undergo another historic transformation.
These developments present both opportunities and challenges for Korea.
Seoul should seriously explore the possibility of trilateral cooperation among Israel, the Gulf states and Korea. Israeli technology, Gulf capital and Korean industrial expertise could form a powerful partnership. One promising area for collaboration is the further advancement of the Iron Beam system among Israel, the UAE and Korea.
The war highlighted the importance of “cost-effective warfare.” Using multimillion-dollar interceptor missiles against cheap drones is economically unsustainable. By contrast, a single Iron Beam shot reportedly costs only about $3. The system has already demonstrated impressive performance in actual combat. However, it still faces technical limitations in heavy clouds or dust storms. Korea could participate in joint efforts to improve the technology. Such cooperation could strengthen Korea’s own missile defense capabilities while creating opportunities for joint exports and defense industrial growth. In this sense, trilateral cooperation could become a new growth engine for Korea’s rapidly expanding defense industry.
At the same time, Korea should not neglect its relationship with Iran.
The two countries have maintained friendly ties for decades, symbolized by “Tehran Street” in Gang-nam and “Seoul Street” in the Iranian capital. During the war, Korea kept its embassy in Tehran open, dispatched a special envoy and participated in the international humanitarian assistance program. At its own initiatives, Seoul also helped resolve the long-pending issue of roughly $7 billion in frozen Iranian oil payments. Iran remains an important regional power with a sophisticated diplomatic tradition and a glorious history of thousands of years. Korea should continue to value relations with Tehran.
Ultimately, balance is the key. The geopolitical earthquake sparked by the UAE is more than a temporary regional conflict. It signals the emergence of a new Middle Eastern order. Korea must read these changes carefully and pursue a balanced, multidimensional diplomacy suited to a rapidly shifting region.
Ma Young-sam is a research fellow at Asiatic Research Institute of Korea University. He served as Korea’s ambassador to Israel and representative to Palestine.