Park Jung-won, Ph.D. in law from the London School of Economics (LSE), is a professor of international law at Dankook University.
Not so proxy war anymore
Park Jung-won
North Korea’s deployment of troops to support Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine is shaking the geopolitical and military landscape in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. It will not only prolong the Ukraine war but also have profound geopolitical and military implications that directly affect the security of these regions, and especially South Korea.
If Russia transfers nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology to North Korea as a reward for troop deployments, the rapid advancement of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities will exacerbate a nuclear crisis that the international community will struggle to manage. North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests and is thought to have produced around 50 nuclear bombs. (However, its ICBM threat is not yet fully credible, due to the technological challenge of ensuring the warhead can withstand 6,000-degree heat upon atmospheric reentry. Reconnaissance satellites are also necessary.) North Korea also wishes to develop nuclear-powered submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles. The recent troop deployment could provide North Korea an opportunity to acquire Russia’s advanced weapons technology.
The most significant risk is North Korea and Russia forming a substantial military alliance by participating jointly in illegal arms deals and warfare. Under a treaty signed last June, the mutual support clause between these two countries has gained substantial meaning, increasing the likelihood of Russian military intervention in the event of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula. The biggest implication is that Russia might intervene in a military conflict on the Korean Peninsula if requested by North Korea.
On the other hand, Russia’s need for North Korean assistance indicates the dire situation Russia currently faces. According to the Ukrainian government, Russia has suffered 700,000 casualties and lost around 9,000 tanks during the course of its invasion. The Russian government is managing public sentiment by partially conscripting people to avoid enlisting sons of high-ranking officials and the upper class. However, this approach is reaching its limits due to the high number of casualties. President Vladimir Putin desperately needs to deploy any available forces to the battlefront. Even if it will not dramatically change the war’s trajectory, the deployment of North Korean forces is intended to prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing into Russian territory.
If the war concludes with Russia effectively achieving a ceasefire victory, it could be a worst-case scenario for South Korea. This outcome, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ending successfully for Russia with the help of North Korea’s military involvement, would signal the official end of the so-called rules-based international order. Consequently, it could embolden simultaneous actions such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and North Korea’s conventional provocations against South Korea.
In South Korea, voices from opposition parties and some others argue that the country should not get deeply involved in helping Ukraine, particularly through the direct provision of offensive weapons. However, this seems to reveal a severe misjudgment by members of South Korean society. The perception of the current situation by the main opposition party could lead to dangerous decisions. The leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, Lee Jae-myung, questioned why South Korea should assist in what he calls “others’ war” in Ukraine and advised President Yoon Suk Yeol’s government not to engage in war games. What is Lee’s true purpose in politics and ambition to become the president? Is the Russia-Ukraine war merely a conflict between foreign countries, unrelated to South Korea? North Korea’s sudden involvement in the conflict would seem to refute that view. South Korea may very probably find itself in need of support from the international community one day, and it would be harder to find help if it ignores Ukraine now.
In 1950, South Korea nearly ceased to exist as a result of North Korea's illegal invasion, but the country’s destruction was averted through dramatic international intervention. Why has South Korean society forgotten this historical experience, focusing instead on immediate, trivial gains? Do they not realize that North Korean troops might learn combat skills in this Russia-Ukraine war that could later be used to threaten South Korea? It is crucial for South Korea’s national security that these North Korean forces be weakened or even annihilated.
Opposition politicians criticize the Yoon government for abandoning “balanced diplomacy” and acting recklessly in supporting Ukraine, fearing a deterioration in South Korea-Russia relations. Would better relations with South Korea have prevented Putin from waging an illegal war in Ukraine? This issue arose independently of South Korea’s efforts. In reality, South Korea’s relations with Russia have already been effectively suspended and will not be renewed until the war ends. The best strategy for South Korea is to ensure that Russia comes to regret siding with North Korea against South Korea.
The Yoon government should not hesitate and must deeply involve itself in the conflict now that North Korea has sent troops to aid Russia. Initially, South Korea’s involvement was limited to humanitarian aid and providing defensive weapons to Ukraine, along with indirect ammunition supplies. However, with North Korean forces now on the Ukrainian front, President Yoon must make decisive and proactive decisions. By actively communicating with NATO, South Korea should gradually send intelligence operatives, special forces and psychological operations units as military advisors to Ukraine. Additionally, it should transition from supplying only defensive weapons to providing offensive ones, ensuring North Korean forces there are defeated with strategic support.
Yoon has nothing more to lose in domestic politics or national security issues. He must demonstrate decisiveness and communicate directly with the people regarding security matters, as if standing on the brink to fight for the survival and security of South Korea. If he acts timidly in hopes of protecting his own political career, or to stave off his wife’s legal problems, he could face the tragic prospect of being forcibly removed from office. However, if he boldly and resolutely addresses security challenges, determined not to repeat the mistakes of Korean ancestors from the late 19th century, the public will rally to protect him as their leader.
Park Jung-won (park_jungwon@hotmail.com), Ph.D. in law from the London School of Economics, is a professor of international law at Dankook University.