Ahn Ho-young is president of the University of North Korean Studies. He served as Korean ambassador to the United States.
Rising threats of nuclear competition
Ahn Ho-young
In working with U.S. diplomats on various different issues, my observation has been that U.S. diplomats working on arms control and disarmament issues seemed to have a particularly high sense of pride and achievement. I thought it may be because the field needs many years of committed work and professionalism and their work led to considerable achievements during and after the Cold War. What I observe among this group of diplomats these days, however, is an emerging sense of frustration. They seem to feel that the achievements of their lifetime are being undone, and that the U.S. might need to increase the number of deployed nuclear weapons.
In October, 2018, President Donald Trump suggested that the United States would withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The reasons for the announcement was that Russia violated the treaty by deploying land based cruise missiles and China, now developing and deploying sizable nuclear forces, was not participating in the treaty. The INF Treaty was the first agreement in which the U.S. and the Soviet Union committed to substantially reducing their nuclear arsenals. I was deeply concerned about the potential collapse of such a crucial treaty and the impact it could have on global nuclear stability.
Joe Biden, on his inauguration as new U.S. president, put renewed emphasis on multilateral cooperation and nuclear disarmament. Even under Biden, U.S. officials have continued to express concerns about nuclear activities in Russia, China, and North Korea. They have warned that if these countries do not alter their trajectories, the U.S. may be forced to increase its number of deployed nuclear weapons.
Russia, in addition to violating the INF Treaty, is also advancing the development of autonomous, nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicles capable of delivering nuclear warheads, known as Poseidon. There are concerns about Russia potentially deploying nuclear weapons in space to target satellites of other countries. Since 2022, Russia has further escalated tensions by threatening the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and NATO member countries.
In 2023, China was estimated to have 500 active nuclear weapons and is projected to exceed 1,000 operable nuclear weapons by 2030, marking one of the fastest-growing nuclear arsenals globally. The U.S., which previously only had to contend with a single nuclear peer, the Soviet Union, during the Cold War, now faces dual nuclear peers in Russia and China. Additionally, North Korea is rapidly advancing its nuclear weapons and missile programs, undermining three decades of global efforts toward its denuclearization. Iran also continues to pursue its nuclear development plans, further complicating the global nuclear landscape.
Pranay Vaddi, special assistant to Biden for arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation, addressed these concerns through his speech at the Arms Control Association in June. He talked about all the efforts the U.S. is now making to make progress on nuclear disarmament with Russia and China, and how these efforts are being rebuffed by the two countries. He then admitted that if these countries do not alter their current trajectories, the U.S. might need to increase its own nuclear arsenal. This concern is echoed by the Republican Party. The Heritage Foundation, which has provided numerous policy recommendations to the Trump administration, recently suggested that the U.S. may need to add 80 nuclear warheads by 2030.
“A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” This statement was first made by Presidents Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev during their summit in Geneva in 1985. It was on the basis of this realization that the two countries proceeded to agree on reducing their nuclear arsenals, which once numbered in the tens of thousands, to just over 3,000 deployed warheads today.
This was a tremendous achievement by the two countries, which deserved much appreciation and respect by the international community. Now, this achievement is being threatened, which could have ominous implications for nuclear stability and global security in the future. North Korea is seizing upon these developments, deepening its ties with Russia, and further destabilizing the Korean Peninsula. The rising threats of nuclear competition underscore the urgency for Korea to be alarmed and actively engage in international efforts to curb these actions.
Thomas Graham Jr., a former U.S. diplomat who had been involved in the negotiation of every single international arms control and non-proliferation agreement from 1970 to 1997, wrote that the Non Proliferation Treaty is based on a central bargain: “the NPT non-nuclear-weapon states agree never to acquire nuclear weapons and the NPT nuclear-weapon states in exchange agree to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology and to pursue nuclear disarmament aimed at the ultimate elimination of their nuclear arsenals.” This is a time when NPT nuclear-weapon states must be reminded of this central bargain.
Ahn Ho-young is chair professor at Kyungnam University. He served as ambassador to the United States.