John Burton is freelancer writer. He was Korea correspondent of the Financial Times, business editor of Korea JoongAng Daily.
Korea and NATO
John Burton
By John Burton
The Ukraine conflict has served as a catalyst in dragging both Koreas into the confrontation between NATO and Russia, as well as raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
The most obvious example is North Korea's supply of munitions to Russia, which paved the way for Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Pyongyang in June and the signing of a mutual defense treaty.
Meanwhile, President Yoon Suk Yeol participated in a NATO summit in Washington in July that underscored Seoul's commitment to aiding Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression amid speculation that it may directly ship weaponry, including artillery shells and air defense systems, to Kyiv.
Putin has warned that Seoul would be making "a very big mistake" if it decided to supply arms to Ukraine.
These developments pose the potential for a dramatic escalation of security risks to South Korea and instability based on what is happening on the battleground in Ukraine.
Ukraine's recent incursion into Russian territory in the Kursk region, for example, could trigger a more aggressive response by Moscow, whose reverberations could be felt half a world away on the Korean Peninsula.
This reveals that Seoul has a direct stake in the conduct and outcome of the Ukraine conflict, the first time South Korea could be directly affected by military events in Europe.
The closer cooperation between South Korea and NATO is the result of several factors. The possible supply of sophisticated Russian weaponry and military technology to North Korea under the new mutual defense treaty has motivated Seoul's search for additional European allies. This parallels Seoul's moves to enhance military cooperation with the United States and Japan in response to perceived threats from both North Korea and China.
It also reflects the more confrontational approach to Pyongyang championed by Yoon in reaction to its "nuclear provocations." Seoul's support of NATO fits in with Yoon's strategy of making South Korea a "global pivotal state," a muscle-flexing exercise suggesting that Seoul is willing to participate in joint efforts to achieve at least regional security goals.
Meanwhile, there is also an incentive for NATO to forge closer ties with Seoul. The Western alliance is becoming more concerned about the rise of China and its growing influence around the world. NATO's belief that China represents a potential threat has led to the conclusion that Beijing poses a shared challenge that must be addressed in cooperation with friendly Asian nations, such as South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
The outgoing NATO secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, said that NATO had entered a new era of "enduring competition with China." This situation "shows that in today's world, security is not a regional matter but a global one" and that "Europe's security affects Asia, and Asia's security affects Europe."
This stance has been partly prompted by the growing cooperation between Russia and China, including Beijing offering various forms of technology, such as semiconductors, to support Moscow's defense industry.
Several of NATO's European members, including France, Germany, Italy and Britain, have participated in military drills with Asian nations and have dispatched warships to such contentious waters as the South China Sea.
Beijing has expressed concern about NATO's intrusion into what it considers its own backyard, and China has accused the U.S. of trying to create an Asian version of NATO. This could affect China's relations with South Korea.
The linking of the two strategic theaters – Europe and Asia – represents a potentially combustible situation for the Korean Peninsula and the rest of the region. The growing presence of NATO in Asia plays into China's claims that the U.S. is leading a confrontation between global blocs. It also risks alienating those Asian countries that want to avoid being drawn into either a pro-U.S. or pro-China camp. But NATO is in no position to effectively aid regional security or deterrence.
The new enhanced security partnership between Russia and North Korea, prompted by the Ukraine conflict, has effectively merged the Indo-Pacific and European security theaters and helped turbocharged South Korea's deepening alignment with not only the U.S. and Japan but NATO as well.
Ukraine's Kursk incursion could exacerbate these tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Putin has previously warned that if NATO increases Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russia by supplying advanced Western weapons, such as cruise missiles and F-16s, Moscow might respond by providing long-range weapons to unspecified countries willing to conduct strikes on Western targets. It is likely that he had North Korea among those countries in mind.
The heightened threat perception might also revive South Korea's desire to acquire its own nuclear weapon. If it did so, what would NATO's response be? Would it trigger sanctions for Seoul's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or else be accepted as a necessary defense measure despite raising regional tensions?
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington-based journalist and consultant.