Repercussions of 'confident' diplomacy
It was not unexpected that South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Chinese President Xi Jinping could not meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco. The Chinese president had time to meet the U.S. leader for four hours and the Japanese leader for 65 minutes but he did not give South Korea's leader more than three minutes. The Chinese leader also met leaders of Brunei, Peru, Fiji, and Mexico but South Korea was not on his priority list. It is indicative of the fact that South Korea and China have drifted away from each other. It could also mean that China does not consider South Korea consequential enough in its larger strategy for the region.
The Yoon administration’s disconnect with China must be understood in the context of its several "bold" moves to mark a clear departure of its foreign policy from the previous administration. The move of South Korea that would have annoyed China the most could be the trilateral summit meeting of South Korea with the U.S. and Japan at Camp David. It was said that the three documents which came out of the summit could be seen as a de-facto trilateral military alliance and it was a big departure from the "three Nos" which were promised by the Moon Jae-in administration to China. The third no was "no involvement in a trilateral military alliance with the U.S. and Japan." China also perceives that the Yoon administration is moving beyond its two other promises such as "no additional THAAD deployment in South Korea and no participation in a U.S.-led missile defense network" as Yoon has openly supported even redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea.
It may look satisfying that the South Korean has decided not to be "hostage" to China in articulating his ambitious foreign policy but such an approach is necessarily going to have consequences. China must have also felt concerned that the South Korean president has been annually participating in the NATO summits, issued an Indo-Pacific strategy and made statements about Taiwan and the South China Sea. In an April 2023 interview with Reuters, Yoon said that "increased tension around Taiwan" is because of attempts to change the status quo and equated the Taiwan issue with the North Korea issue. When Chinese Foreign Ministry Wang Yi responded to his statement, South Korea summoned the Chinese Ambassador Xing Haiming. South Korea again summoned Xing in June 2023 when he gave a critical remark against South Korea’s tilt toward the U.S. In an interview published in the British Daily Telegraph on Nov. 21, 2023, Yoon again talked about the Taiwan Strait and rules-based maritime order in the South China Sea and, again, China registered its protest. All these South Korean postures are referred to as "confident" diplomacy but were perceived by China as the Yoon administration’s approach of "no care" toward China.
Even though the "assertive" nature of China and its "revisionist" foreign policy must be dealt with, South Korea needs to be more subtle and nuanced in its dealings with China. In the regional competition between the major powers, South Korea needs to be less outspoken and more proactive. It is important because in the game of great powers, these players may take tactical backward-forward moves and it would be difficult for a country like South Korea to so swiftly adjust to these strategic moves. If it is not able to do so, it may become irrelevant in the regional power equation.
For example, after a period of competition, there are now efforts by the U.S. and Japan to mend their relations with China. Recent exchanges between the U.S. and China indicate that both countries are aware of their trade issues (and others) and seeking to evolve some kind of "modus vivendi" to co-exist with each other. China’s president having a long meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida indicates that Japan is also eager to send an olive branch to China. Even Australia, which was quite vocal in its contests with China and plays a leading role in “containing” China through Quad as well as AUKUS, has changed its posture. On Nov. 5, 2023, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met Xi in Beijing and said, "China is our most important trading partner."
Thus, South Korea needs to recalibrate its foreign policy approach. More importantly, it needs to be less vocal and proactive on the issues that are part of the great power politics, even if it continues to hold a principled position on these issues. Actually, South Korea could be a key player in the region given its economic, technological and cultural clout but careless and "bold" activism in the military and strategic domains may be counterproductive and South Korea’s disconnect with China indicates this folly.
The author is associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India and can be reached at: sandipmishra10@gmail.com.