China alienates itself
By Kim Sang-woo
The leaders of the Group of Seven on May 21 pledged to “de-risk” without decoupling from China, an approach that reflected European and Japanese concerns. The G7 communique noted that they did not seek to “thwart China's economic progress and development.”
China rebuked the statement and summoned host Japan's ambassador in protest. The state-backed Global Times on May 22 called the G7 an “anti-China workshop.”
In early June, defense ministers from around the world gathered in Singapore for the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue, a forum for discussing security challenges in Asia.
China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu refused to meet his U.S. counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Beijing suspended formal military-to-military meetings last August following then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Since then, U.S.-China tensions have intensified. And in May, close calls between U.S. and China fighter jets over the South China Sea and warships in the Taiwan Strait became too close for comfort.
Regardless, the defense chiefs continued to blame the other for the lack of dialogue. For his part, Austin expressed deep concern that “the PRC has been unwilling to engage more seriously on better mechanisms for crisis management.” He added, “dialogue is not a reward. It is a necessity.”
Meanwhile, Li proclaimed that “only enhancing dialogue and communication will ensure stability in the region,” adding that China would “establish direct hotlines to expand communication channels,” yet adding conditions in the case of the United States.
With the risk of collision growing and dialogue channels closed, it is unclear if or how the two sides would communicate to resolve a crisis if one were to occur. ASEAN security leaders called for the U.S. and China to find ways to manage their differences and not allow competition to threaten peace in the region.
Li's speech focused on Beijing's Global Security Initiative which offers “Chinese wisdom” and critiques American leadership in international security. Overall, Beijing portrays China as a source of peace while labeling the U.S. as a destabilizing force.
In regard to the close calls between the U.S. and China militaries, Li placed the blame on the U.S. military's presence in the region. This view ― that the American military presence near China's periphery is provocative ― is hardly compatible with the vision of the U.S. and its allies for a free and open Indo-Pacific region and will continue to be a source of tension.
China's efforts to woo partners in the region face a tough challenge, as its neighbors have articulated a number of concerns related to Beijing's assertive actions in the region.
In the 2023 survey report conducted by ASEAN Studies Center at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, respondents said that “China remains the most influential and strategic power in Southeast Asia (41.5 percent), followed by the U.S. (31.9 percent) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (13.1 percent). While China retains its top position, its influence has declined significantly from 54.4 percent in 2022, reducing its lead over the growing political strategic influence of the U.S. and ASEAN.”
The same survey highlighted that “the U.S. popularity among Southeast Asian respondents continues to increase from 57 percent in 2022 to 61.1 percent in 2023 compared to 38.9 percent of respondents who chose China.” Moreover, nearly half of respondents (49.8 percent) have either “little confidence” (30.8 percent) or “no confidence” (19 percent) in China to “do the right thing” to contribute to global peace, security, prosperity and governance.
The survey also states “distrusts toward China are higher in all ASEAN member states except Brunei, Cambodia and Laos. Distrust levels are most pronounced in Myanmar (80 percent), Vietnam (78.7 percent), the Philippines (62.7 percent), Indonesia (57.8 percent), Thailand (56.9 percent) and Singapore (56.3 percent).
The mixed sentiment found in this survey echoes the ASEAN China Survey 2022 with ASEAN countries having a positive view about economic relations with China but negative views on political and security relations, due to its conduct in the South China Sea.
What is clear is that Southeast Asian states have nuanced and mixed views as to their relationship with China that do not reflect China's repeated assertion that the U.S. is somehow?cajoling or influencing Chinese neighbors to “gang up” or take “anti-Chinese” positions against China.
South Korean and Japanese views show similar trends as those in Southeast Asia. According to the Sinophone Borderlands Project, which surveys China's global impact, “Eighty-one percent of South Korean respondents expressed negative or very negative sentiments. That is substantially more than in any of the 56 countries surveyed worldwide.” Continued support of a divided Korean Peninsula; refusal to condemn North Korean attacks on South Korea such as the bombing of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010 or the sinking of its naval vessel the Cheonan; economic coercion over U.S. THAAD deployment in 2016; and the blocking of U.N. Security Council sanctions on North Korean missile launches have all contributed to resentment and concerns about China.
Similarly, the nongovernmental organization Genron, which regularly surveys Japanese and Chinese citizens as to their mutual perceptions, consistently finds that many Japanese recognize the importance of stable economic and political relations with China. At the same time, Japanese respondents also say they have apprehensions about Chinese behavior and policies.
Clearly, the Chinese defense minister's comments are not grounded in the perceptions that China's neighbors hold. But concerns about Chinese expansionism and economic coercion in the region coexist with a strong interest in maintaining close economic ties.
Arguments that the U.S. is deepening military cooperation in “China's backyard” ignore the legitimate territorial claims that other states in the region have. In their point of view, strengthening defense ties with the U.S. and other forms of strategic partnerships are the result of China's assertive behavior.
China should be more sensitive to its increasingly alarmed neighbors' concerns that Beijing's behavior has pushed a growing number of them to align with Washington and other like-minded states that adhere to the rules-based international order.
Kim Sang-woo (swkim54@hotmail.com), a former lawmaker, is chairman of the East Asia Cultural Project. He is also a member of the board of directors at the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.