Questions following the epic success of Yoon's US visit: What about China and Russia?
By Ahn Ho-young
President Yoon Suk Yeol's and his wife's recent state visit to the United States was a huge success. The visit took place in the year commemorating the 70th anniversary of the alliance between Korea and the U.S.
David Ignatius of the Washington Post, one of the most influential commentators today, applauded the 70 years as “an epic success.” The substance of the visit was as impressive as Ignatius' characterization of the 70 years.
The Washington Declaration will prove to be a strong milestone to effectively deter North Korean nuclear provocations and eventually lead to the denuclearization of North Korea. Yoon's itinerary included many activities to further strengthen Korea-U.S. cooperation on science and technology, meeting with scientists and entrepreneurs both in D.C. and Boston, visiting the Goddard Space Center, establishing a science and technology-focused group between NSC's in both countries, and signing almost 50 MOUs. Strengthened cooperation in science and technology holds a key to continued prosperity for the Korean economy. It also has strong implications for Korea's national security down the road.
On top of all of these activities and agreements, President Joe Biden and the U.S. Congress received President Yoon and his wife in genuine friendship. As a longtime observer of Washington, I could feel it in my bones. These are all welcome developments. On the other hand, I hear some observers in Seoul raise questions about what the strengthened relations with the U.S. imply for Korea's relations with China and Russia. Wouldn't it alienate China and Russia, undermine economic cooperation with them and further drive them away from cooperating on North Korea's provocations?
These are important questions. In order to answer these questions, I think we must keep in mind two interrelated points. First, we must move away from the illusion that we can continue to benefit from strategic ambiguity. Some people in Korea still believe that we don't have to take a stand on defending liberal democracy, continue to straddle the fence and cooperate with the U.S. for national security and get maximum economic benefits from China and Russia.
We tried it for many years, only to find that it does not work. The ambiguity led to losing credibility with the U.S. That eventually led to losing credibility with China as well. China came to find that, irrespective of ambiguity on the facade, Korea in the end had to side with the U.S. Korea's decision on the deployment of THAAD in Korea was a good example. China responded with a series of ferocious retaliations, maybe made more so because of its disappointment with Korea's ambiguity.
Some observers in Seoul ask why Korea cannot straddle the fence, when important actors in the Global South benefit from that strategy. Korea cannot, because we are faced with a different geopolitical and geo-economic reality. Think about Korea's security. Strengthening the extended deterrence of the U.S., as was done through the Washington Declaration, is sine qua non to deal with North Korea's unbridled development of nuclear weapons and missiles as well as other security threats we face in Northeast Asia today.
The most reliable option for Korea in this increasingly divided world is to work with like-minded countries to defend liberal democracy. Korea must continue to emphasize the importance of the rule of law, including wartime humanitarian law and the prohibition of the use of force for a change in the status quo. When the rule of law recedes, it will be replaced by the rule of power, jeopardizing Korea's national security and economic prosperity.
Second, moving away from strategic ambiguity need not inhibit Korea's cooperation with China and Russia. During my time as Ambassador to the U.S., 2013-17, I kept on reminding my U.S. colleagues why Korea had to cooperate with China and Russia to the extent that the cooperation does not conflict with the Korea-U.S. alliance and the values underlying the alliance.
Reconciling Korea's stand for democracy while maintaining commercial and other ties with China and Russia becomes increasingly complicated in today's world. However, we have to remember that this is a difficulty faced by other liberal democracies as well.
Chancellor Scholz, while declaring a firm stand against autocracies through his speech on Zeitenwende ― made immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine ― took a huge delegation of German businessmen to China in November 2022. President Macron of France organized a similar visit to China in April 2023.
Even the U.S. takes a similar position. U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen recently spoke at Johns Hopkins University. She said that the United States will safeguard its national security, even if it comes at an economic cost to its relationship with China. However, she also said that the decoupling of bilateral economies would be disastrous for both countries and the world.
Korea is not alone in finding itself in a narrow place between strengthening relations with liberal democracies and maintaining commercial and other ties with China and Russia. The dilemma arises from the changes in the international system. We have to understand the changes and base our foreign, security and economic policy on that basis.
Ahn Ho-young (hyahn78@mofa.or.kr) is chair professor of North Korean studies at Kyungnam University. He has also served as Korean ambassador to the U.S. and vice foreign minister.