Bellwether of China's elite
By Lee Seong-hyon
The Communist Party of China will officially announce whether General Secretary Xi Jinping will serve his third five-year term at the 20th Party Congress in the fall of next year.
The United States, which is in “extreme competition” with China (according to Biden), is keenly interested in whether Xi will manage to maintain his long-term grip on power. If Xi continues to hold on to power, then Washington should also have a long-term strategy to deal with “Xi Jinping's China” that goes beyond the Biden administration.
The reason why the U.S. is interested in Xi's possible third term is also related to a recent report titled, "The Longer Telegram: Toward a new American China strategy," released by the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank. The report attributes the fundamental cause of the U.S.-China conflict to a single person, i.e., Xi Jinping. Xi is a leader who advocates the "Chinese Dream" and challenges U.S. global hegemony. Therefore, replacing Xi is a fundamental solution to the U.S.-China conflict, according to that logic.
The report states that all five Chinese leaders before Xi tried to "work with" the U.S.-led world order, but Xi is attempting to reshape it, and that the current situation indicates a fundamental change in the strategic environment facing the U.S. In response, the U.S. should make China return to a state prior to Xi, proposing that he be replaced.
Specifically, the author diagnosed that the Chinese Communist Party is experiencing a "significant division" internally over Xi's style of leadership, and said his policy and demand for absolute loyalty are causing internal opposition.
From an analytical perspective, all of the rumors suggesting widespread dissatisfaction within the Communist Party against Xi are nothing new. There clearer signs of a possible rift. For instance, at a leadership meeting in Beidaihe, last summer, it was reported that a senior CCP elder accused Xi of aggravating U.S.-China relations. On another occasion, Cai Xia, a former professor of the Central Party School, which grooms mid-career CCP officials, publicly criticized Xi as a "mafia boss."
But when analyzing authoritarian states like China, it is more important to gauge whether the political storm has reached a critical point that can tip a revolution, because complaints about leaders are always present. In particular, it is necessary to diagnose the degree of consolidation of Xi's power at this time, in consideration of the COVID-19 situation over the past year or so.
China was the only major country in the world that has succeeded in both containing COVID-19 and recovering its economy in 2020. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang attributed this dual success to the result of the CCP's leadership with “Comrade Xi Jinping as the core."
In addition, this year marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party, which promised to achieve a full-scale “xiao kang” or a moderately prosperous society. The Chinese government declared "complete victory" in this regard, attributing it again to Xi's leadership.
Xi also accelerated the improvement of a more affordable medical insurance system and the national pension system, which began during the time of his predecessor, Hu Jintao, resulting in the improvement of the people's livelihoods, especially in rural areas.
Xi's success and his popularity with the public by copying Mao Zedong's “mass line” (qunzhong luxian) strategy is something that outside observers often overlook. As a result, Xi is unlikely to encounter decisive difficulties in eliciting support from the Chinese people for his long-term rule, because of his efforts to eliminate poverty, continued anti-corruption campaign, and the improvement in the social safety net. On the other hand, at present, there are no meaningful political forces to challenge Xi in China.
The U.S., unexpectedly, also helped Xi strengthen his power. In the wake of more than 500,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. and the unprecedented insurrection at Capitol Hill, Chinese state media focused its reporting on the weaknesses and flaws of U.S. democracy. The Chinese government now even displays a sense of superiority of socialism over democracy. In addition, the upward surge of nationalism and patriotic mentality in China in the context of the U.S.-China rivalry also justifies the need for a strong leader like Xi.
China's elite power landscape is murky and requires continuous observation. But it is the view of this author, at this time, that there is no fatal flaw that can prevent Xi from winning his third term.
Lee Seong-hyon, Ph.D. (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), is the director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute