Blinken and Austin's visit to Seoul
By Lee Seong-hyon
The purpose of the visit to South Korea by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to hold the so-called “2 + 2 meeting” is not about North Korea. The purpose of their visit is about China. Appreciating this difference matters, because South Koreans tend to have high hopes of a “breakthrough” in the North Korean nuclear crisis whenever high-level U.S. officials land here. We need to moderate our hopes.
China is Washington's “ultimate concern,” as existential theologian Paul Tillich would put it. North Korea may be the most important agenda for Seoul, but it is just a side show for Washington. The two allies are expected to narrow the order of their respective agendas, meeting each other's needs halfway.
Specifically in Seoul, Blinken will 1) share Washington's progress on its on-going North Korea policy review and receive South Korea's feedback, 2) underscore the importance of Washington-Seoul-Tokyo trilateral cooperation, 3) introduce Washington's evolving plans regarding Quad.
They will also celebrate their recent agreement on sharing the cost of maintaining U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. Seoul agreeing to shoulder an additional 13.9 percent of the cost was taken by some as too much. But it seems reasonable, in the end, because much of the increased amount will benefit Korean employees working at U.S. military facilities. Their job security counts, especially during the pandemic.
Much attention has been drawn to Seoul's mojo with Quad. Given the publicized differences in their feelings on the matter, the U.S. is not likely to ask South Korea to join Quad during this week's meeting, even though that may be something Washington expects down the road.
For South Korea, China is a geopolitical reality. Simply because you don't like your neighbor, you cannot pack up and leave. That means Seoul faces the difficult problem of finding a way to live with Beijing, while maintaining a robust alliance with Washington.
Yet South Korea is not confused about the two. It has traditionally prioritized its relationship with the U.S. and that will be the mainstay. But it will also try to find a way to work with China. The South faces a gargantuan diplomatic challenge of demonstrating that it can juggle the two sides during this time of US-China rivalry.
China should welcome South Korea's chance to have a high-level dialogue with the U.S., because whether it is about Quad or something else about China, the South is likely to make the meeting “less anti-China.” The Moon Jae-in administration has issued its principle of pursuing “openness, transparency and inclusiveness” in its diplomacy. The keyword here is “inclusiveness.”
South Korea is unlikely to join a united front of allies that explicitly gang up on China. The Biden administration, unlike Trump's, will also make efforts to listen to concerns from its allies, instead of pressuring them. They are cognizant that pressure diplomacy often backfires, which was a lesson from Trump.
Meanwhile, Seoul appears more willing than ever to support Washington's efforts to strengthen the trilateral cooperation structure with Tokyo. Seoul knows that Washington cares about it. Seoul also hopes Washington cares more about the North Korean issue ― Seoul's diplomatic priority.
Broadening the picture, the key to the joint visit by the U.S. Secretary of State and Defense Secretary lies in their itinerary. After stopping by America's two allies, Tokyo and Seoul, Blinken will fly to Alaska. Flanked by Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security advisor, the duo will sit down with their Chinese counterparts, Wang Yi and Yang Jiechi.
So, Alaska is the destination. Tokyo and Seoul are stopovers.
The Alaska meeting will not be successful, but it is important. It will be an occasion for both sides to exchange their respective bottom lines, to define what will be perceived as “violations” that will provoke strong reactions, including kinetic ones. The U.S. is concerned that an overconfident China may become more adventurous with its military actions, miscalculating Washington's will to react. Beijing will also reiterate its so-called “core interests.” The meeting, after all, is to manage conflict between the two competing powers so that things don't get out of control.
Finally, there is one thing that both Blinken and Austin must demonstrate during this trip. They should emit calm confidence and mature leadership that can gain back the trust of their Asian allies that have been bullied by China and were belittled by Trump. Restoring their trust must come first. And there is the old maxim by John F. Kennedy: Ask not what your ally can do for you ― ask what you can do for your ally. It's a reminder for both Seoul and Washington.
Lee Seong-hyon , Ph.D. (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com)., is director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.