Friends more worried than foes by Trump
By Sandip Kumar Mishra
U.S. President Donald Trump's demand for transnational relations with South Korea and praise for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un indicate a churning toward an unknown in the East Asian inter-state equations.
Actually, Trump has disparaged two important allies of the U.S. in the region ― Japan and South Korea ― since the very beginning of his presidential campaign.
In the framework of “America first,” he articulated an unconventional approach in which the U.S. allies would have to bear all the cost of American troops in the region, buy more American weapons and rejig a free trade agreement (FTA) to favor U.S. businesses.
Trump's approach has created a huge trust deficit between the U.S. and its allies in the region. Although, on the surface both Japan and South Korea have been trying their best to either accommodate his eccentric demands or just somehow endure his term without major changes in their alliance commitments.
Also, given the nature, length and mutuality of alliances, it is not easy for any party to walk out from these alliances without huge costs. However, it's quite obvious that the U.S. allies in the region are quite upset by Trump's approach.
Actually, the Trump administration has been quite fickle-minded and short-sighted in its dealing with the U.S. friends and foes. The U.S. provocative policies toward Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, China and North Korea have made every country uncomfortable.
Furthermore, to show a clear departure from the past, the U.S. moved out of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Paris Agreement, UNESCO, the U.N. Human Rights Council, the Universal Postal Union and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty during the Trump presidency.
These developments have augmented the feeling in Japan and South Korea that for Trump nothing is sacrosanct, and even for short-term narrow self-interest the U.S. might change its approach toward its long-trusted allies.
For Japan, the U.S. leaving the TPP negotiations was the first shock. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tried damage control by deliberately not showing any negative emotions.
Another problem for Japan has been that Trump have kept Tokyo almost out of loop in his dealings with North Korea. Whereas Japan prefers a hardline policy toward North Korea, Trump has been pursuing an engagement policy to denuclearize the North.
Furthermore, Japan has also been unhappy with Trump trying to downplay eight short-range missile tests by North Korea last month and this month. It would also not be happy with the ousting of the U.S. national security adviser John Bolton, who reportedly agreed with Japanese hardline policy toward North Korea.
Trump has also been openly critical of the U.S. trade deficit with Japan. The U.S. has been insisting Japan pay more for the U.S. troops on Okinawa as well as buy more jet fighters and weapons.
On June 26 before his visit to Japan to attend the G20 summit, Trump in an interview with the Fox Business Network said that Japan was not sufficiently contributing to the bilateral security agreement which was signed in 1951.
He ridiculed Japan by saying that “if Japan is attacked, we will fight World War Three … but if we are attacked … they can watch on a Sony television.” A few days before the interview, Trump was quoted by Bloomberg News as saying that he was considering withdrawing from the defense agreement because it favors Japan.
South Korea is also uneasy as the Trump administration has been demanding $5 billion to station American troops in Korea and for Seoul to give more concessions to Washington in bilateral trade.
Contrary to Japan, South Korea is unhappy with the less flexible approach of the Trump administration in dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue. It was also surprised when Trump unilaterally announced at his Singapore summit with Kim Jong-un that bilateral military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea would be stopped.
South Korea also complains that the U.S. has either been a moot spectator of a growing “assertive Japan” or assisting it to do so which makes Seoul vulnerable.
In the latest history and trade disputes between South Korea and Japan which led to Korea ending the General Security of Military Information Agreement, Seoul complains that Trump is not taking any mediating role and suggesting to Japan to change its behavior.
In the above context, when mutual trust among the U.S., Japan and South Korea have diminished, the strategic space of North Korea and China have definitely been enlarged. They are aware that even though the formal alliances of the U.S. with Japan and South Korea will endure in near future, the content has definitely been hollowed out.
Such message might encourage them to be less compromising and accommodating in their future approach to regional politics. Overall, Trump's approach has caused significant damage to the American allies in the region and indirectly helped rivals China and North Korea.
The author (sandipmishra10@gmail.com) is associate professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.