Beyond Singapore summit
By Na Jeong-ju
The denuclearization talks between Pyongyang and Washington are showing no signs of a breakthrough.
The two sides appear to remain poles apart over the terms of a deal. South Korea, for its part, is finding it difficult to mediate between them.
As the tug-of-war continues, hopes are dimming for a new era of consolidated peace and co-prosperity. The U.S. and North Korea are seemingly going back to square one. The agreement North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump reached in Singapore one year ago to strive for the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is in peril. Accordingly, inter-Korean peace remains fragile. Fear is palpable that North Korea may be returning to its past behavior.
In recent weeks, there have been symbolic events showing the stubbornness of both the U.S. and North Korea.
Pyongyang launched short-range “projectiles” twice in less than a week in early May in possible violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.
It was revealed later that the U.S. had seized a North Korean cargo ship that allegedly defied a UNSC ban and was being used to smuggle coal out of the country.
North Korea said the launches were aimed at increasing the strike ability of its weapons systems without mentioning the seizure of its ship. However, it can be assumed that Pyingyang did so to protest this, and to send a “warning” to the U.S., signaling that it could walk away from the negotiations at any time.
Kim Jong-un ordered the military to further increase the capability of units in western border areas to “carry out combat tasks and keep a full combat posture.”
U.S. politicians and diplomats are now again asking fundamental questions: Is North Korea genuinely willing to abandon its nuclear weapons? Is it really committed to peace? Can the world trust North Korea?
But doubts also exist in North Korea. Officials there suspect the U.S. is using sanctions as leverage to achieve its ultimate goal of toppling the regime. Kim expressed his willingness to abandon his nuclear pursuit in return for a security guarantee from Washington.
Despite the U.S.' stubbornness about maintaining sanctions and North Korea's escalating rhetoric and military preparedness, both sides are apparently sticking to dialogue.
In a statement issued June 4, North Korea urged the U.S. to drop its “current way of calculation” and think about what would be a “correct strategic choice” to keep alive last year's agreement before it was too late.
“The U.S. would be well-advised to change its current method of calculation and respond to our request as soon as possible. There is a limit to our patience,” it said.
Trump has repeatedly said he maintains a good relationship with Kim, but the implications of his diplomatic efforts are not entirely clear. He needs to prove that he is able to sustain any kind of negotiations beyond the summit in Singapore.
Trump's planned visit to Seoul in late June may break the status quo.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in will use the upcoming summit to pave the way for the resumption of dialogue between North Korea and the U.S., and ultimately move his inter-Korean peace drive forward.
Trump's visit can be meaningful not only for Moon, but for Kim because it is a good chance for him to smooth the way for a new round of talks with Washington.
In this regard, Kim needs to be more open to another summit with Moon before Trump visits Seoul. As they met briefly in secret in the North Korean side of Panmunjeom last year, they can meet anytime. Kim needs to use Moon to narrow his differences with Trump.