Nuclear-armed North Korea hampers regional security

By Mahmood Elahi

When America's Founding Fathers wrote the Second Amendment enshrining the citizen's right to bear arms, they must have thought that this would enhance the security of the state. An armed citizenry would provide a militia against any outside aggression and stop criminals from endangering the lives of Americans inside.

Today, with 300 million guns in private hands, armed citizens have become a threat to each other. You don't know who will turn up at schools, churches and synagogues and turn their guns on fellow Americans. And you cannot do anything to prevent this.

The good news is that such mass shooters are few and far between and 40,000 yearly shooting victims are a tiny fraction of 350 million of the U.S. population. So, despite the shock and terror associated with regular mass shootings, most Americans have come to live with them.

Similarly, when North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un, detonated a nuclear device and tested long-range missiles capable of reaching the continental United States, he must have thought that this would provide him the security vis a vis the United States which he considers as his principal enemy.

In his mind, Kim saw the nuclear arsenal as an effective deterrent against any U.S. desire for regime change. With nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, North Korea can now deliver a devastating counterstrike if the United States and its South Korean ally dare to invade North Korea.

So he must have thought by acquiring nuclear capability, he has achieved the ultimate security. He can now threaten the United States without fearing any retaliation.

But he might have missed the big picture. By threating the United States, he has become a threat to America. It is no longer a question of how to prevent the United States from attacking North Korea, it is now a question of how to prevent (in the eye of most American strategists) North Korea from attacking the United States.

Most U.S. policymakers argue, given the treacherous nature of the North Korean regime, Kim cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons. He might strike or at least threaten the United States to stay out of the Korean Peninsula or suffer nuclear annihilation. Kim's nuclear saber rattling does not help either.

Facing the nuclear threat from North Korea, the U.S. response has been swift and furious. U.S. President Donald Trump imposed crippling economic sanctions on North Korea and threatened to destroy it with a pre-emptive nuclear strike.

Given America's vastly superior nuclear capability, the threat to North Korea is real. A surprise and all-out pre-emptive nuclear strike by America's carrier-borne bombers and submarine launched missiles can destroy North Korea's military installations in a matter of hours.

And economic sanctions will cripple the impoverished North Korea even if the United States decided not to strike as a pre-emptive measure.

The tables have turned. Instead of threatening the United States, Kim is facing two existentialist threats. Despite Trump's good words, he faces a potential American pre-emptive nuclear strike and devastating economic sanctions.

This explains why he changed his tune and agreed to denuclearize in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Now he is trying to renege on his pledge while pushing for sanctions relief.

But unlike America's invisible mass shooters, North Korea is a visible threat and can be eliminated easily. Kim will do well to realize this and denuclearize for his own good. North Korea's nuclear arsenal is a threat to its own security.

Mahmood Elahi (omega51@sympatico.ca) is a freelance writer in Ottawa.