Trump doesn't need Kim
By Mahmood Elahi
This refers to the op-ed: “Political engineering of summit,” by Lee Seong-hyon, published in The Korea Times on May 1.
Lee Seong-hyon might have missed the real picture when he writes: “Today, Trump's hands are tied, his maneuvering room to reach out to North Korea is reduced by the reality of domestic politics. This line of thinking leads to the bad news that a third summit may not be on the horizon any time soon. The good news is that if Trump wins the election next year, he will be again in an adventurous mode and surely desire another rendezvous with Kim.”
He seems not to realize that Trump is now in an unassailable position. With the U.S. economy growing at a crisp 3 percent and unemployment at an all-time low at 3.5 percent, even the Democrats have difficulty in criticizing Trump for the economy.
Even Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders seems to endorse Trump when blasting the Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden for supporting the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which Trump opposed as a “job killer.” Sanders is even trying to woo some of Trump's anti-free trade supporters.
With left-leaning Democrats embroiled in an ideological infighting and the Republicans united, Trump doesn't need North Korea as an electoral issue. He will concentrate on the economy.
He might continue to praise Kim to keep him engaged. But he will not agree to any lifting of sanctions. In fact, Kim might have missed an opportunity to get some lifting of sanctions in return for some symbolic denuclearization. After the election, Kim will be left in the wilderness.
In the second Trump presidency, the emphasis will be on stricter denuclearization of North Korea. Trump is likely to offer economic incentives to North Korea. He might allow the two Koreas to increase their cooperation. But he will insist that sanctions can only be lifted if North Korea takes concrete steps toward denuclearization.
With the Democrats defeated, Trump will have a free hand in dealing with North Korea. He will not have to bother about Congressional opposition to his policies. It will be all about executive actions.
However, a victorious Trump might be tempted to win some moderate Democratic support to his agenda. Denuclearization of North Korea might emerge as a bipartisan issue and Democrats might join Trump in imposing stricter sanctions on North Korea.
If Trump is re-elected, he is likely to re-impose stricter sanctions on North Korea.
Mahmood Elahi (omega51@sympatico.ca) is a freelance writer in Ottawa.