'No rush' turns out to be 'no deal'
By Park Jin-ho
.jpg?w=728)
The recent U.S.-North Korea Hanoi summit was a result of the prelude to future U.S.-North Korea talks based on conditions made concrete by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Now, it seems that Trump moved to the right path to discuss North Korea's denuclearization. He drew a clear red line on how sanctions against North Korea would be lifted.
At the same time, it was observed that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had no intention of abandoning nuclear weapons without a preceding relief of sanctions.
In addition, Trump gave his own first definition of denuclearization, removing all nuclear weapons, which was not discussed at all during the first U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore last June.
Prior to the recent meeting with his North Korean counterpart in Hanoi, President Trump publicly emphasized the need for “no rush.” He downplayed expectations for the summit results. In this regard, he might have been prepared for both worst and best scenarios of his top-down dialogue with Chairman Kim.
It was found that Kim, however, was not well prepared to discuss and accept what Trump wanted. After all, a “top-down” approach between the two leaders was subject to Trump's transactional art of negotiation.
Now, it remains to be seen, but Pyongyang may consider modifying its negotiation approach and strategy for future meetings with Washington.
The failure of the Hanoi summit may imply that Trump would not be willing to work ― at least now ― with President Moon Jae-in with regards to sanctions relief for transforming the two Korea's relationship.
In the aftermath of the summit, Trump had a phone call with Moon and asked for his mediation role in the North's denuclearization. It is a clear signal that Seoul is being requested to turn its focus to denuclearization from economic cooperation with Pyongyang.
The Moon administration is now in strategic dilemma over how to develop a Plan B. The issue is that there has been no Plan B discussed at all up to now inside the Moon administration or among Seoul, Washington, and Pyongyang.
After returning to Pyongyang empty-handed, Kim could wait and see for a while what his South Korean counterpart will suggest since both leaders were stunned by the Hanoi summit.
Since North Korea already possesses nuclear weapons, it was anticipated that Kim would be unlikely to rush for a new deal with Trump in Hanoi. But, the summit turned out to be quite the opposite.
Rather than considering the worst-case scenario of the summit, Moon and Kim expected the best-case scenario such as holding another summit sooner or later.
From a domestic political viewpoint in Washington, the timing of the Hanoi summit was bad because of Michael Cohen's hearings at the U.S. Congress. Trump was confident that the unsuccessful results of the summit ― making no difference ― would endanger his political leadership in fending off Cohen's allegations of his illegal activities.
Trump's leadership is much more vulnerable to domestic politics than international dynamics. This was overlooked by Seoul and Pyongyang.
President Trump has made no commitment yet to a next round of “top-down” meetings with Chairman Kim. He said that Kim had a certain vision and it was “not exactly our vision” on denuclearization. The U.S. and North Korea have given different reasons for the failure of the Hanoi summit ― an ugly buck passing between each other.
Now, President Moon is in a rush to meet with Trump and Kim separately, putting aside his own rapprochement policy toward North Korea. Kim will not wait long to hear from Moon. At the same time, Trump's strategic patience will not last long.
The writer is chief of staff to Rep. Baek Seung-joo of the main opposition Liberty Korea Party.