Groundhog Day as UK's 'Plan A' is 'Plan B' too
By Andrew Hammond
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Brexit watchers will be forgiven for feeling like they are caught in a time loop, repeatedly living the same moments, just as in the hit 1993 movie “Groundhog Day.” For on Monday, Prime Minister Theresa May delivered a “Plan B” for exiting the EU that is virtually identical to the one that last week saw her on the receiving end of the largest House of Commons defeat in the modern political era.
Despite last week's high political drama in Westminster, it therefore appears “nothing has changed,” to coin one of May's infamous phrases.
Yet underlying her announcement Monday, and the paralysis of her U.K. government, there are potentially key developments now underway in the House of Commons. These could be very significant moving forward next week and February when the next round of votes are held.
What this underlines is that, amidst growing Brexit uncertainty, one of the few likelihoods is that Parliament will increasingly take more control of the fraught EU exit process as Brexit and opposition MPs flex their muscles. Take the examples of the Brexiteers, many of whose key figures were evidently chastened by the scale of last week's loss by May.
A signal of growing Brexiteer anxiety over the outcome of the process came Sunday when influential backbench MP Jacob Rees-Mogg called for right-of center Conservatives, and other leading Brexiteers from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and beyond, to come together in the national interest. What Rees-Mogg refers to here is a split within the ranks of pro-Brexit supporters between pragmatists such as leading Cabinet Minister Michael Gove who have backed May's deal, versus those who prefer a no-deal Brexit like Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson.
Given the increasing threat that some Brexiteers now perceive as their cherished political project, it is clear that some “no-dealers” like Rees Mogg are increasingly open for compromise. As he said Sunday, “If I had to choose between no deal and May's original accord, I would have no hesitation of opting for no-deal Brexit but even Mrs. May's deal would be better than not leaving at all”.
This could be a crucial, beginning of a shift in position that could yet see a substantial slice of the 118 Tory MPs, plus potentially the 8 DUP MPs from Northern Ireland, who last week voted against May's deal softening their stance. In so doing, especially if May can get concessions from Brussels on the so-called “Irish backstop,” there remains the remarkable prospect that her deal could yet have a second lease of life.
It is this internal dynamic within the Brexiteer camp that helps explains why May's Brexit “Plan B” is virtually the same as her “Plan A.” For it seems overwhelmingly likely, for now at least, that rather than reaching out to opposition MPs, May will seek again to persuade her party and the DUP of the merits of the plan, despite the uncertainty of Brussels offering up any more concessions to facilitate this.
Yet, reluctance of the EU-27 to compromise further is not the only reason why May and Brexiteers now face a real battle to realize a right-of-center “hard” exit from the EU. For, as well as the uncertainty over the position of Brussels, opposition MPs are seizing the initiative.
On Monday, for instance, the opposition Labour Party submitted an amendment, to be considered as soon as next week, that calls for a vote of its own “softer” Brexit plan. This includes the prospect of remaining in the European customs union, plus the later possibility of a second public vote on Brexit if no option can secure a consensus in the House of Commons in coming weeks.
Amidst this uncertain battle of wills in Westminster, there is one further likelihood beyond the House of Commons taking more control of Brexit. That is, the growing likelihood that the two-year Article 50 process may need to be extended, potentially till the summer.
Aside from the continuing political failure to pass a withdrawal deal, there is growing unlikelihood that London will have in place by end-March a new domestic legislative framework to enable Brexit. A backlog of at least six key U.K. exit bills covering trade, agriculture, fisheries, healthcare, financial services, and immigration must be passed before the nation can leave the EU.
Yet, with only around 60 days till the nation is scheduled to leave the EU, even if MPs and lords sit at weekends, and cancel the scheduled February parliamentary recess, there may not now be enough time to pass all this key legislation before the U.K.'s scheduled end-March EU exit.
Taken overall, beneath the permafrost of May's Brexit position, a thaw is underway in parliament that is seeing a rejuvenated battle of wills between Brexiteers and opposition MPs. As March's deadlines close in, this means there is growing possibility that Article 50 will be extended beyond March with the possibility of yet more Brexit Groundhog Days to come.
Andrew Hammond (
andrewkorea@outlook.com
) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.