VIEW North Korea and the new cooperation mechanism in Northeast Asia
Li Chengri.
By Li Chengri
In the year 2017, war tension on in the Korean Peninsula left Northeast Asia in dangerous place. However, in 2018 drastic changes are taking place faster than expected. The changes taking place in North Korea are truly remarkable.
First of all, North Korea clearly declared the transition from Byungjin Line (parallel development of nuclear and economic construction) to concentration on economic development. Secondly, North Korea' leader Kim Jong-un several times mentioned the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. In particular, he directly agreed with President Moon Jae-In about creating a Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons and nuclear threats.
The estranged relationship between North Korea and China due to nuclear issues, and the deteriorating inter-Korean relations were prominently improved and led to the first-ever U.S.-North Korean summit. In addition, North Korea's policy decisions have been made public in several reports. This implies fundamental changes in politics, economy, social, and foreign relations.
Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia and a summit with Japan's Prime Minister Abe are planned, and the second U.S.-North Korean Summit will be a turning point for the changes on the Korean Peninsula. This change began from North Korea and is having a huge impact on the Korean Peninsula, moreover, even to the dynamics in Northeast Asia.
North Korea is the only undeveloped area in Northeast Asia. Although North Korea has proposed intensive economic construction projects and is pushing for national development by presenting a “Five-year Strategy,” it will be difficult to achieve visible results within a short time without fundamental improvement of the surrounding environment.
The infrastructure situation in North Korea is relatively poor. Without fundamental improvement, it is difficult to get full-fledged investment from outside the country. Under the current situation, massive modifications and investment should be made to the North's infrastructure ― railroads, roads and power.
Because infrastructure investment is large and has a long payback period, infrastructure investments must be guaranteed by the relevant countries or be funded by international financial institutions.
In addition, the international community's cooperation or cooperation system is highly desirable, as most investment or development in North Korea is difficult for any single country to handle alone. In particular, the cooperation and efforts of Korea, China, and Japan are essential.
The only cooperation system functioning in Northeast Asia involves Korea, China, and Japan. There are many new ideas about North Korean regional development, but the most realistic is a trilateral cooperation mechanism. To establish North Korea's trust in the international community, it is now necessary for trilateral cooperation to work strategically on developing North Korea, which is the biggest issue in Northeast Asia.
First, we must support and cooperate with North Korea's changes. For North Korea, it is never an easy decision to switch toward denuclearization or economic construction. In other words, successful economic construction is critical to Kim Jong-un as a historical sense of duty and involving great risk.
If by any chance North Korea fails to achieve positive results, it could have a huge negative impact not only on North Korea but also on the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, it is necessary to approach North Korea's new national development on economic construction concentration in terms of peace and development on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.
Second, support for construction of the North Korean economy should not be carried out independently by China, South Korea, or Japan, but rather at the level of economic integration in Northeast Asia. North Korea for its part will thus not rely on a particular country to receive abundant resources for development but make efforts to maintain some degree of balance.
The construction of infrastructure such as electric power, roads, and railroads necessary for economic reconstruction will also be difficult for the country on its own. Therefore, China, South Korea, and Japan should form an economic cooperation mechanism.
Third, strategic thinking and approach to the new changes in North Korea should be attempted. Currently, it is necessary to invite North Korea or Mongolia to join the trilateral cooperation mechanism. If this is not feasible, at least North Korea should be accepted as an observer so we can provide an environment that lets North Korea establish an identity as a part of Northeast Asia.
The situation in Northeast Asia cannot and should never be reversed. For more than 70 years after World War Ⅱ, the Korean Peninsula has been divided. Now, the people of both Koreas and even Northeast Asia are wishing for peace on the Korean Peninsula and for regional prosperity.
This is the public sentiment in this region and it cannot be stopped by any greater power or game theories. The three countries should altogether contribute to the prosperity and cooperation system of Northeast Asia by fully understanding the historical trends and supporting North Korean economic development through government-led, infrastructure building and multilateral means.
Li Chengri is a research fellow at the National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Choi Seung-hye, an assistant researcher at Global Security Cooperation Center, translated the article.