Falling marriage rates of young adults
By Chang Se-moon
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One of the important, and somewhat puzzling, questions in many advanced countries, including Korea, is why marriage rates of young adults have been declining.
Policymakers are concerned, because declining marriage rates are likely to reduce the labor supply in the future and could have a negative impact on the economy.
I have no doubt that there are many reasons for the declining rates, likely beyond my comprehension. There is one good article that explores the relationship between economic security and marriage rates of young adults: “Millennial Marriage: How Much Does Economic Security Matter to Marriage Rates for Young Adults?” by Benjamin Gurrentz.
Dr. Gurrentz works at the Fertility and Family Statistics Branch of the U.S. Census Bureau, and the article was prepared for the 2018 annual meeting of the Population Association of America. Although the article is based on U.S. data, I expect the findings apply equally to most advanced countries, including Korea.
According to Dr. Gurrentz, “Young adults today are marrying at lower rates than previous generations,” and “a lack of economic security plays a role in the decline.” In 1980, 48 percent of young adults aged 18 to 32 were married in the United States. The percentage declined to 36 percent in 1997 and 26 percent in 2013.
Declining marriage rates of young adults in recent years are just as striking. The rates for young adults aged 18 to 24 were 36.4 per 1,000 eligible adults in 2008 but declined to 29.6 in 2012; while marriage rates of young adults aged 25-34 were 84.6 in 2008 but declined to 75 in 2012.
Why are the marriage rates among young adults declining? “Although most people claim to marry for love and not economic reasons, research nonetheless shows that economic security is considered a prerequisite for marriage in modern times.”
Dr. Gurrentzthen lists low earnings, poverty, debt, housing costs and unemployment as having a negative impact on “entry into marriage and marital living arrangements”.
Question arises as to why these economic factors are negatively influencing the marriage rates. According to Dr. Gurrentz, “the process of marrying is itself expensive, as engagement rings and increasingly lavish weddings introduce barriers to those lacking economic resources.”
Further, “cultural expectations surrounding marriage also entail other important, but expensive, life events, such as purchasing a home and raising children.”
In addition, “financial strains and disagreements are strong predictors of both relationship quality and divorce,” suggesting that economic security is a “pre-emptive attempt to prevent future marital problems.”
Many young adults of today are more educated than their preceding generations, but burdened with a larger amount of student loan debt. Many millennials also entered the job market during and after the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009.
Many young adults in Korea today, on the other hand, are suffering from the anti-business policies of the Moon Jae-in administration.
Support for excessively strong labor unions, a dramatic increase in the legal minimum wage, the requirement of a maximum number of working hours per week, and the futile prosecution of large business leaders for shady decisions, which are more tradition-based than outright illegal, all led to a dramatic decrease in the number of jobs available for young adults.
It is silly for government officials of Korea to worry about low birthrates, while their own economic policies are largely responsible for the disappearing economic opportunities for young adults.
Stating that it is not just one economic factor, but a combination of several economic factors that may hinder marriage, Dr. Gurrentz presents the following findings.
Employment, especially full-time employment, is “an important factor for marriage, as it ensures financial security through regularly scheduled wage payments and access to other forms of economic security, like health insurance and retirement benefits.” Wages also play “a very important role in understanding transitions into marriage.”
The costs of housing affect marital choices of young adults. Living with a spouse was “more prevalent in metropolitan areas where housing is low-cost,” while “expensive housing was linked with living with a roommate, parent, cohabiting partner, or in a subfamily.”
According to Dr. Gurrentz, “High housing costs may offset the otherwise beneficial role of higher wages in providing economic security prior to marriage.”
Dr. Gurrentz summarizes that the “percentage of young adults employed, median number of hours worked, median annual wages, and homeownership are associated with higher marriage rates,” while “the percentage of young adults unemployed, higher levels of poverty, higher housing costs, and higher proportions of young adults living in their parents' homes are associated with lower marriage rates.”
It appears that the best way of encouraging marriage rates for young adults, and thus reversing the declining trend in population growth, is to pursue policies that will improve economic opportunities for young adults.
Chang Se-moon (changsemoon@yahoo.com) is the director of the Gulf Coast Center for Impact Studies.