New strategy for peace-making
By Heo Mane
Springtime seems to be around us now that the PyeongChang Winter Olympics are over. Is it real springtime to bring about a thaw on the Korean Peninsula, or will it trick us with a chilly wind?
A renowned South Korean sociologist recently said he wants to see the inter-Korean thaw prompted by the Olympics to further promote reconciliation between the South and the North.
Considering unstable and unpredictable geopolitical factors surrounding the peninsula, South Koreans still have mixed feelings about the rapid pace of inter-Korean detente.
We should not be over-optimistic about Pyongyang’s charm offensive and peace overtures. We need to accept our stark reality as it is ― no further than this. The charm offensive may well be part of a propaganda tactic aimed at making the most of Seoul’s appeasement policy.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has long opted for a “military power first” policy over appeasement toward Seoul and Washington. His nuclear and missile development programs have been based on this policy. It has helped Pyongyang declare itself a self-styled nuclear state, deepening conflicts with the international community.
The conflicts have even driven Pyongyang to the brink of war with Washington. The North test-fired a Hwasong-14, an intercontinental ballistic missile that flew over Japanese airspace over Hokkaido and fell into the Pacific Ocean.
The North also conducted its sixth nuclear test last September, claiming it detonated a hydrogen bomb. In addition, Kim Jong-un traded belligerent insults with U.S. President Donald Trump throughout last year.
However, the situation began to change in January when the North decided to send its delegation to the Feb. 9-25 PyeongChang Olympics. The Olympic thaw, breaking the ice of inter-Korean ties, provided momentum for detente on the peninsula.
At the opening ceremony of the Winter Games, South and North Korean athletes marched together under a unification flag. This helped raise hope for reconciliation between the two Koreas.
Last week, President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys had a sincere face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang. During the talks, the two sides agreed to hold a third inter-Korean talk at the truce village of Panmunjeom next month.
Kim also expressed his willingness to have dialogue with the U.S. to discuss the North’s denuclearization. He also floated the idea of stopping his nuclear and missile tests while the talks are underway.
He also told the South’s envoys that he came to understand the annual South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, which were delayed until the Olympics and Paralympics end, would proceed as usual.
Kim might have felt that the U.S.-led U.N. Security Council sanctions imposed on the North began to bite, further strangling the crumbling economy.
Against this backdrop, he appeared to weigh in on swiftly improving inter-Korean relations as a first step and Washington-Pyongyang relations as a second.
On the other hand, Kim described the North’s denuclearization as a task he inherited from his late father Kim Jong-il.
President Moon sent National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong, who returned after meeting with Kim Jong-un, as a special envoy to the U.S. late last week. Chung had a face-to-face meeting with President Trump at the White House. He delivered Kim’s message to Trump. And Trump accepted Kim’s proposal for a summit.
It was unusual that Chung announced President Trump’s acceptance of the proposal at the request of the U.S. President at a press conference at the White House. The sudden announcement stunned the world and was welcomed by many other countries.
It should be kept in mind that Trump still sticks to the “complete, verifiable and irreversible” denuclearization (CVID) of North Korea. This formula is clearly aimed at permanent denuclearization. It tells us that the U.S. and the North will face a very harsh road ahead for denuclearization even though Trump will hold a summit with Kim in late May.
Trump wants Pyongyang to dismantle its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. These weapons are horrific arms, capable of destroying world peace, as well as peace on the peninsula. Thus, the denuclearization roadmap should be a primary tool to make a breakthrough to the prolonged nuclear standoff.
In this sense, the Olympic thaw has given a boost to President Moon in taking the initiative in solving the nuclear issue through dialogue by mediating between the U.S. and the North.
There will, of course, be no more reason to worry about “Korea passing,” a term depicting a potential isolation of South Korea in dealing with the North’s nuclear issue.
Now President Moon has managed to take the driver’s seat in improving inter-Korean ties and pushing for the North’s denuclearization.
Beijing has said that it would keep playing an important role in the process of denuclearizing the peninsula. It implied that Chinese interests would not be damaged in dealing with it, in cooperation with Washington.
Tokyo also showed great interest in the North Korean matter, expressing guarded optimism for the planned Trump-Kim summit.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who reportedly appeared to be surprised at the U.S.’s sudden shift to dialogue with the North, stressed that Tokyo and Washington should keep maximum pressure on North Korea until Kim gives up its nuclear ambitions.
Given the rapid developments taking place on the Korean Peninsula, the Olympic thaw has contributed to South-North rapprochement and laid the groundwork for Pyongyang-Washington dialogue.
I hope all three leaders ― Moon, Kim and Trump ― will keep benefiting from the favorable atmosphere for detente and produce a real breakthrough in achieving denuclearization and bring peace to Northeast Asia.
They will certainly require a new strategy of peace-making, deviating from hard-line stances and hostile policies, especially the nuclear brinkmanship and other military provocations on the part of North Korea.
Lastly, it remains to be seen if the forthcoming summits will bring successful results to defuse tension on the peninsula and open the way for peace and coexistence.
Heo Mane (mane398@naver.com) is a professor emeritus and adviser of the Korea-EU Forum.