False missile alarm
By Choi Sung-jin
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On Feb. 25, 1983, I was in the pressroom of the Prime Minister’s Office, in the now-disappeared Capitol Building in central Seoul.
Around 10:30 a.m., an air-raid siren wailed, and an urgent street broadcast repeatedly said, “Citizens of Seoul, we are issuing an air-raid warning. Take shelter underground.”
We reporters thought it just a panic exercise. Then followed the voice: “This is a real situation, not a drill.” And we heard some jet fighters fly across the sky quite low and saw the PM’s security guards close the compound’s gate and draw out their rifles from long bags. We said to one another, “Something must be happening.”
About an hour later, it turned out to be a false alarm. The special newscast said a North Korean air force pilot defected to the South with a MiG-19, breaking away from his squadron while taking part in a drill against the Korea-U.S. Team Spirit exercises.
I am not sure whether it was an intentional alarm to test the public’s preparedness or just the result of miscommunication between the Air Force and the Civil Defense Headquarters. Anyway, that was the first ― and the last so far ― “scary” air-defense exercise I’ve experienced. Before and after the incident, the monthly civil defense drills were little more than a nuisance for Koreans, which delay their schedule for 15 minutes or so.
That hasn’t changed much here ― even now when North Korea’s Kim Jong-un boasts not just South Korea and Japan but the U.S. mainland is within reach of his nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles. Compare this with the snafu in Hawaii Sunday caused by a false missile alarm, from which many Hawaiians reportedly are still smarting.
Foreigners often express surprise at the calmness ― even indifference ― South Koreans show in the face of what outsiders see as a hair-trigger. So much so that a North Korean soldier’s defection to the South last November, braving a volley of gunfire from his comrades, made even bigger headlines here than Pyongyang’s nuclear tests or missile launches.
As novelist Han Gang wrote in the New York Times, however, “We are worried. We are afraid of the direct possibility of North Korea, just over the border, testing a nuclear weapon again and of a radiation leak. We are afraid of a gradually escalating war of words becoming a war in reality.”
What makes Koreans appear detached from reality is the desperate wish to the extent of groundless self-conviction ― like an ostrich sticking its head in the sand, as a U.S. anchor put it ― mixed with a complete sense of powerlessness, which, sad to say, even President Moon Jae-in acknowledged.
Should they remain so, however, and until when? Can they do nothing but leave their fate to others’ mercy?
In the run-up to the 2018 Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, the two Koreas have just begun to resume their on-again, off-again dialogue. The Koreas reconnected the severed inter-Korean contact after a two-year hiatus. Given inter-Korean rapprochement true to its name did not exist under the two conservative governments in Seoul, the ongoing talks, if they progress smoothly, will mark the first detente in a decade on this divided peninsula.
Seoul needs to make the most of the hard-won opportunity for dialogue. Even U.S. President Donald Trump threw “100-percent” support behind it, although not until the megalomaniacal leader took a lot of self-credit for drawing Pyongyang back to the dialogue table. The time given to Seoul will not be long, though.
As early as the finale of the Winter Games on Feb. 25, the atmosphere on this peninsula can turn as chilly as the lingering winter air. One of the NYT’s stories on its online edition Tuesday was saying, “U.S. military quietly prepares for a last resort: War with North Korea.” Moon said war is not acceptable under any circumstances, which seems to have fallen on deaf ears across the Pacific, though.
The liberal South Korean leader and his national security team must get over three obstacles ― the North Korean regime, the U.S. hard-liners and conservative opponents at home ― to tackle the herculean task of seeking a negotiated settlement of the North Korean crisis.
They must persuade the North’s Kim and his regime there are other, and better, ways than nuclear weapons development to guarantee the isolated state’s security and prosperity. To re-link severed ties, Seoul will have to make lots of concessions, financially and diplomatically, and borrow many carrots and sticks from Washington through careful collaboration. Moon’s political opponents will call it a “beggar’s diplomacy,” yielding to the brutal regime’s threats while hastily demanding progress on the denuclearization of the North.
However, Seoul’s role can hardly be extended beyond dissuading Pyongyang from making further military provocations. It would be a great success if the South can have North Korea and the U.S. sit at the same table by themselves or with others.
I do not know whether Moon and his team can go along this tortuous path until the end. As Koreans have seen too often, however, there are apparent limitations to how far South Korean leaders and their diplomats can go in inter-Korean diplomacy because of the geopolitical reality facing them.
All this shows why South Korean people should no longer be calm or indifferent ― even ostensibly ― to the ongoing developments. People need to render their full support to their government by holding, if required, another series of candlelit rallies. United South Koreans saved their nation from economic crisis by giving out their gold two decades ago and brought back democracy last year.
Why wouldn’t they do the same to protect their and their descendants’ security? That may be the only way Koreans can maintain “real” calmness in another false alarm.
Choi Sung-jin is a Korea Times columnist. Contact him at choisj1955@naver.com.